Thu, Jan 9, 2025·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 213 | 18 | 012 | 333 |
| CAR | 212 | 212 | 210 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:59TORNick RobertsonAssists: Max Domi, Steven Lorentz · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 7:29TORWilliam NylanderUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 13:58CAREric RobinsonAssists: Ty Smith, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 14:15CARJordan StaalAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Jordan Martinook · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 0:35CARJordan StaalSHAssists: Jordan Martinook, Jaccob Slavin · Snap, 0.21 xG2–3
- P2 1:11TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Matthew Knies, Mitch Marner · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–3
- P2 4:58CARJackson BlakeGWGAssists: Juha Jaaska, Dmitry Orlov · Snap, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 0:20CARJordan StaalAssists: Brent Burns, Jordan Martinook · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 16:23CARSeth JarvisENUnassisted · Snap, 0.81 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:40TORMorgan Rielly: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:19CARBrent Burns: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:35TORBobby McMann: Interference2 min
- P2 12:38TORAuston Matthews: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:57CARJalen Chatfield: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Marner – McMann2:27
xG 0.32–0.10 (75%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – McMann9:05
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Domi – Lorentz – Robertson7:41
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Kampf – Dewar – Holmberg7:16
xG 0.35–0.46 (44%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Tanev4:41
xG 0.31–0.10 (76%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Myers9:05
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Rielly – Myers3:20
xG 0.18–0.16 (52%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNecas – Robinson – Kotkaniemi9:49
xG 1.14–0.33 (77%)attempts 21–11goals 1–1
- Drury – Blake – Jaaska8:03
xG 0.81–0.02 (97%)attempts 21–2goals 1–0
- Staal – Martinook – Svechnikov7:59
xG 0.41–0.25 (63%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Aho – Roslovic – Jarvis13:35
xG 0.33–0.98 (25%)attempts 9–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield17:47
xG 1.82–0.82 (69%)attempts 34–16goals 1–1
- Walker – Smith10:13
xG 0.62–0.51 (55%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Burns – Slavin17:40
xG 0.86–0.80 (52%)attempts 23–22goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).