Mon, Jan 13, 2025·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Florida Panthers 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 27 | 06 | 110 | 323 |
| PHI | 07 | 114 | 38 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:59FLASam ReinhartSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 9:34FLAUvis BalinskisAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 7:51PHIGarnet HathawayUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 2:01PHINoah CatesPPAssists: Travis Sanheim, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 3:35FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 5:59PHIMorgan FrostPPAssists: Matvei Michkov, Jamie Drysdale · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–3
- P3 14:09PHINoah CatesGWGAssists: Tyson Foerster, Egor Zamula · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:49FLAAleksander Barkov: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:34FLAA.J. Greer: Embellishment2 min
- P1 11:34PHISean Couturier: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:43PHIEgor Zamula: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:59FLAEvan Rodrigues: Interference2 min
- P2 10:04FLAJesper Boqvist: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:43FLAAleksander Barkov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:55PHISean Couturier: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:14FLADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoqvist – Luostarinen – Lundell3:13
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Nosek – Greer – Samoskevich5:22
xG 0.23–0.00 (99%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Bennett – Tkachuk – Luostarinen7:20
xG 0.09–0.22 (29%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Boqvist – Lundell6:29
xG 0.13–0.30 (31%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBjornfot – Balinskis9:37
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Balinskis2:43
xG 0.04–0.16 (19%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Mikkola11:16
xG 0.08–0.22 (27%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Lycksell – Michkov6:36
xG 0.48–0.09 (85%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Cates – Brink – Foerster7:04
xG 0.37–0.11 (77%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- Konecny – Tippett – Frost9:15
xG 0.27–0.52 (34%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Laughton – Hathaway – Poehling8:23
xG 0.06–0.40 (13%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Drysdale9:16
xG 0.56–0.21 (73%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Sanheim – York13:28
xG 0.44–0.19 (70%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Zamula12:24
xG 0.47–0.24 (67%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).