Wed, Jan 15, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 011 | 018 | 28 | 237 |
| BUF | 111 | 213 | 11 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:43BUFRyan McLeodAssists: Connor Clifton, Beck Malenstyn · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 8:18BUFDylan CozensAssists: Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 19:56BUFRyan McLeodGWGAssists: Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
- P3 3:45CARJaccob SlavinAssists: Brent Burns, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 16:50CARMartin NecasAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Brent Burns · Slap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 19:36BUFRyan McLeodENAssists: Tage Thompson, Jason Zucker · Other, 0.80 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:10BUFSam Lafferty: Kneeing2 min
- P1 8:18BUFRyan McLeod: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:16CARSean Walker: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 3:42BUFConnor Clifton: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kozak won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Svechnikov8:54
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Robinson – Drury – Blake4:47
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Drury – Blake – Jaaska3:12
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Aho – Roslovic – Jarvis10:40
xG 0.55–0.50 (52%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Walker5:51
xG 0.67–0.10 (87%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Orlov – Chatfield10:05
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 14–8goals 0–2
- Gostisbehere – Chatfield4:53
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestKrebs – Quinn – Benson8:07
xG 0.46–0.15 (75%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Tuch – McLeod – Peterka5:37
xG 0.35–0.11 (76%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Lafferty – Malenstyn – Kozak10:14
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
- Zucker – Thompson – Cozens4:34
xG 0.10–0.16 (39%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Byram9:16
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Byram3:22
xG 0.21–0.05 (81%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Power9:13
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).