Fri, Jan 17, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 06 | 310 | 23 | 519 |
| BUF | 110 | 013 | 119 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:16BUFOwen PowerPPAssists: Zach Benson, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 1:41PITRickard RakellPPAssists: Bryan Rust, Matt Grzelcyk · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 2:08PITAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Cody Glass · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 11:43PITCody GlassPPGWGAssists: Philip Tomasino, Alex Nedeljkovic · Snap, 0.23 xG3–1
- P3 1:09PITBryan RustPPAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Michael Bunting · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 14:46BUFZach BensonAssists: Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–2
- P3 17:18PITAlex NedeljkovicENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG5–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:57BUFJack Quinn: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:24PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 0:31BUFRasmus Dahlin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:50BUFHenri Jokiharju: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:07PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:35PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:26BUFTage Thompson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:42PITOwen Pickering: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:11PITMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:11BUFPeyton Krebs: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:03BUFJason Zucker: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:03PITRyan Graves: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Tomasino – O'Connor8:14
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Malkin – Bunting – Beauvillier8:49
xG 0.33–0.44 (43%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell9:22
xG 0.09–0.53 (15%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Acciari – Glass – Lizotte6:54
xG 0.07–0.58 (11%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Graves – Joseph8:09
xG 0.08–0.19 (28%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Pickering2:20
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Pettersson9:55
xG 0.35–0.51 (41%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestZucker – Thompson – McLeod10:20
xG 0.50–0.09 (85%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Tuch – Cozens – Peterka6:48
xG 0.52–0.13 (80%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Krebs – Quinn – Benson8:02
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Malenstyn – Kozak5:38
xG 0.09–0.23 (28%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Power5:21
xG 0.69–0.14 (83%)attempts 17–1goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Byram6:29
xG 0.30–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Power8:16
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).