Thu, Jan 23, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Montréal Canadiens 2, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 04 | 212 | 013 | 229 |
| DET | 217 | 215 | 013 | 445 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:00DETJonatan BerggrenAssists: Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 19:56DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 4:25DETAndrew CoppSHGWGAssists: Simon Edvinsson · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 5:29MTLKirby DachAssists: Christian Dvorak, Brendan Gallagher · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 7:50DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Moritz Seider · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–4
- P2 11:06MTLKaiden GuhleAssists: Patrik Laine, Kirby Dach · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:35DETSimon Edvinsson: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:51MTLKirby Dach: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:10DETMoritz Seider: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:15MTLNick Suzuki: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:39DETAlex DeBrincat: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 14:35MTLLane Hutson: Interference2 min
- P3 18:56MTLJuraj Slafkovský: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestLaine – Dach – Newhook10:44
xG 0.36–0.18 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Armia – Evans – Suzuki2:14
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Armia – Evans – Pezzetta3:56
xG 0.00–0.40 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak7:57
xG 0.21–0.70 (23%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Savard – Xhekaj9:05
xG 0.53–0.89 (38%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Carrier – Guhle15:33
xG 0.31–0.70 (31%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Matheson – Hutson16:50
xG 0.34–1.15 (23%)attempts 12–22goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFischer – Rasmussen – Soderblom6:17
xG 1.10–0.24 (82%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Larkin – Raymond – Kasper12:10
xG 0.57–0.07 (89%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Tarasenko – Copp – DeBrincat10:59
xG 0.97–0.60 (62%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Compher – Veleno – Berggren9:51
xG 0.05–0.33 (13%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Seider16:17
xG 1.07–0.17 (86%)attempts 25–9goals 1–0
- Johansson – Edvinsson14:18
xG 1.35–0.56 (71%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Holl – Gustafsson10:17
xG 0.91–0.31 (75%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).