Tue, Jan 28, 2025·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 07 | 28 | 26 | 421 |
| TBL | 19 | 011 | 015 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:34TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 10:19CHIConnor BedardPPAssists: Seth Jones, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 18:14CHILandon SlaggertGWGAssists: Lukas Reichel · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 8:02CHIRyan DonatoAssists: Seth Jones, Philipp Kurashev · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 19:03CHITeuvo TeravainenENAssists: Jason Dickinson · Wrist, 0.39 xG4–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 12:42CHINick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:42CHISeth Jones: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:42TBLMichael Eyssimont: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:42TBLZemgus Girgensons: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:42CHINick Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:17CHIPatrick Maroon: Boarding2 min
- P1 16:17CHIPatrick Maroon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:00TBLNikita Kucherov: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:24TBLErik Cernak: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 14:00CHIConnor Bedard: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:00TBLMichael Eyssimont: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:00TBLMichael Eyssimont: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:00CHITyler Bertuzzi: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Donato
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Teravainen – Dickinson – Mikheyev7:49
xG 0.29–0.31 (49%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Foligno – Reichel – Slaggert7:43
xG 0.15–0.22 (41%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Nazar – Bedard14:00
xG 0.57–0.86 (40%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Maroon – Donato – Kurashev7:43
xG 0.31–0.65 (32%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Del Mastro2:16
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Brodie – Del Mastro9:36
xG 0.58–0.59 (49%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Crevier13:07
xG 0.22–0.32 (41%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Guentzel – Point6:20
xG 0.60–0.05 (92%)attempts 9–2goals 1–1
- Girgensons – Paul – Goncalves4:33
xG 0.18–0.03 (88%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel3:03
xG 0.15–0.01 (94%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Paul – Goncalves – Geekie4:23
xG 0.25–0.15 (62%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPerbix – Carlile12:24
xG 0.80–0.22 (78%)attempts 17–3goals 1–0
- Hedman – Raddysh13:41
xG 0.75–0.38 (66%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Cernak13:38
xG 0.60–0.55 (52%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).