Wed, Jan 29, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Minnesota Wild 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 28 | 012 | 15 | 325 |
| TOR | 08 | 011 | 114 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:07MINMarat KhusnutdinovAssists: Jakub Lauko, Devin Shore · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 15:35MINJared SpurgeonPPGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P3 8:16TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Pontus Holmberg, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 19:45MINMarcus FolignoENAssists: Frederick Gaudreau · Poke, 0.79 xG3–1
Penalties (2)
- P1 15:30TORDavid Kampf: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:40MINRyan Hartman: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Eriksson Ek – Boldy16:38
xG 0.67–0.36 (65%)attempts 17–22goals 0–0
- Shore – Lauko – Khusnutdinov7:03
xG 0.54–0.38 (59%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Foligno – Hartman – Rossi12:16
xG 0.30–0.50 (37%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Trenin – Ohgren9:05
xG 0.14–0.38 (27%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Merrill12:36
xG 0.73–0.14 (83%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Middleton – Faber19:43
xG 0.46–0.92 (33%)attempts 18–30goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Chisholm15:45
xG 0.17–0.70 (19%)attempts 4–17goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Nylander – Holmberg14:20
xG 0.64–0.48 (57%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
- Pacioretty – Robertson – Minten6:40
xG 0.38–0.23 (62%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Reaves – Lorentz – Kampf4:05
xG 0.12–0.03 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Marner – Matthews – McMann15:40
xG 0.53–0.59 (47%)attempts 27–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Tanev17:42
xG 1.04–0.46 (69%)attempts 28–9goals 1–0
- Myers – Benoit11:25
xG 0.48–0.09 (85%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly4:24
xG 0.14–0.16 (47%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).