Thu, Feb 6, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Colorado Avalanche 4, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 09 | 317 | 18 | 434 |
| CGY | 111 | 04 | 114 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:22CGYJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Matt Coronato · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 1:20COLCale MakarAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 5:34COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 19:42COLMartin NecasPPGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 12:53COLMartin NecasAssists: Sam Malinski, Parker Kelly · Snap, 0.17 xG4–1
- P3 18:14CGYRasmus AnderssonAssists: Martin Pospisil, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:53COLSamuel Girard: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 2:52COLCalvin de Haan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:01COLJack Drury: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:32CGYMikael Backlund: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:59COLNathan MacKinnon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:11COLMiles Wood: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:11COLMiles Wood: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:11CGYAdam Klapka: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 18:33CGYMorgan Frost: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 9:33CGYJake Bean: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Frost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas14:17
xG 1.24–0.55 (69%)attempts 23–6goals 2–0
- Wood – Colton – Drury6:20
xG 0.38–0.03 (93%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Kelly – O'Connor – Kiviranta6:26
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Drouin – Mittelstadt – Parssinen6:53
xG 0.10–0.34 (23%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar13:20
xG 1.02–0.47 (69%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Girard – Malinski13:05
xG 0.87–0.32 (73%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- de Haan – Kylington10:22
xG 0.24–0.14 (64%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Huberdeau – Pospisil4:19
xG 0.37–0.22 (62%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Farabee5:14
xG 0.23–0.18 (57%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Lomberg – Rooney – Klapka4:54
xG 0.09–0.10 (48%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Frost – Farabee – Sharangovich2:34
xG 0.02–0.17 (10%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Hanley – Andersson15:50
xG 0.58–0.61 (49%)attempts 8–21goals 0–2
- Bean – Pachal12:16
xG 0.11–0.48 (18%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Weegar – Miromanov13:22
xG 0.48–1.42 (25%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).