Fri, Feb 7, 2025·Madison Square Garden, New York
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 011 | 315 | 00 | 326 |
| NYR | 18 | 19 | 07 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:31NYRVincent TrocheckAssists: Alexis Lafrenière · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 2:25PITBlake LizotteAssists: Noel Acciari, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 3:39NYRAdam FoxAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Ryan Lindgren · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 9:07PITRickard RakellAssists: Bryan Rust, Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 11:59PITPhilip TomasinoPPGWGAssists: Bryan Rust, Michael Bunting · Snap, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:32NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:02NYRWill Cuylle: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:52NYRReilly Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:45PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: Interference2 min
- P3 17:24PITMichael Bunting: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Rakell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestRust – Rakell – Beauvillier11:07
xG 0.52–0.31 (63%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Hayes – Bemstrom – Tomasino8:39
xG 0.20–0.05 (79%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Imama – Acciari – Lizotte2:06
xG 0.11–0.05 (67%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Heinen – Bunting – Glass7:36
xG 0.07–0.06 (56%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Joseph13:52
xG 0.77–0.10 (89%)attempts 19–4goals 0–0
- Letang – Graves2:32
xG 0.14–0.04 (75%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Graves – Desharnais9:43
xG 0.27–0.35 (44%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Panarin – Cuylle2:51
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Lafrenière – Cuylle2:45
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Carrick – Vesey – Rempe6:34
xG 0.09–0.11 (44%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Smith – Trocheck – Lafrenière5:57
xG 0.12–0.16 (42%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren16:04
xG 0.59–0.20 (75%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Borgen – Lindgren2:14
xG 0.12–0.06 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Fox – Miller2:34
xG 0.05–0.03 (61%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).