Sat, Feb 8, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Chicago Blackhawks 5, St. Louis Blues 6 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 28 | 03 | 36 | 04 | 1 | 521 |
| STL | 010 | 317 | 28 | 05 | 2 | 640 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:04CHICraig SmithAssists: Patrick Maroon, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 5:42CHIRyan DonatoAssists: Connor Bedard · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 1:40STLPhilip BrobergAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Brayden Schenn · Slap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 1:50STLNathan WalkerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 17:09STLMathieu JosephAssists: Brayden Schenn, Dylan Holloway · Snap, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 3:50CHIAlec MartinezAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Ilya Mikheyev · Snap, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 4:32STLCam FowlerAssists: Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.00 xG3–4
- P3 6:08CHITeuvo TeravainenAssists: Nick Foligno, Ilya Mikheyev · Slap, 0.04 xG4–4
- P3 11:08CHIIlya MikheyevAssists: Nick Foligno, Alex Vlasic · Backhand, 0.11 xG5–4
- P3 15:23STLRobert ThomasAssists: Philip Broberg, Zachary Bolduc · Poke, 0.14 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. STL Jake Neighbours stopped
- 2. CHI Connor Bedard stopped
- 3. STL Brayden Schenn scored
- 4. CHI Teuvo Teravainen scored
- 5. STL Dylan Holloway stopped
- 6. CHI Ryan Donato stopped
- 7. STL Jordan Kyrou stopped
- 8. CHI Craig Smith stopped
- 9. STL Robert Thomas stopped
- 10. CHI Lukas Reichel stopped
- 11. STL Pavel Buchnevich stopped
- 12. CHI Frank Nazar stopped
- 13. STL Zachary Bolduc stopped
- 14. CHI Ilya Mikheyev stopped
- 15. STL Nathan Walker stopped
- 16. CHI Patrick Maroon stopped
- 17. STL Mathieu Joseph stopped
- 18. CHI Nick Foligno stopped
- 19. STL Radek Faksa scored
- 20. CHI Tyler Bertuzzi stopped
Penalties (3)
- P2 7:51CHIRyan Donato: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:58CHISeth Jones: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:15STLJordan Kyrou: Unsportsmanlike conduct bench2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Reichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Teravainen – Mikheyev4:52
xG 0.40–0.14 (74%)attempts 5–5goals 3–0
- Teravainen – Mikheyev – Nazar6:59
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
- Bertuzzi – Kurashev – Nazar2:10
xG 0.05–0.17 (22%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Maroon – Smith – Reichel9:08
xG 0.27–0.40 (40%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Del Mastro12:27
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 9–12goals 2–1
- Martinez – Jones20:04
xG 0.55–1.16 (32%)attempts 18–27goals 2–2
- Murphy – Vlasic18:39
xG 0.32–0.95 (25%)attempts 10–18goals 1–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas12:17
xG 0.73–0.01 (99%)attempts 17–2goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Neighbours – Bolduc6:30
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway3:06
xG 0.07–0.06 (51%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko9:05
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Parayko16:47
xG 0.67–0.32 (68%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Suter – Leddy15:45
xG 0.72–0.42 (63%)attempts 18–13goals 2–1
- Faulk – Broberg12:58
xG 0.22–0.64 (26%)attempts 10–10goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).