Tue, Feb 25, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Anaheim Ducks 2, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 15 | 17 | 06 | 218 |
| BUF | 011 | 07 | 319 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:05ANAMason McTavishPPAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Troy Terry · Slap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 4:58ANALeo CarlssonPPAssists: Pavel Mintyukov, Isac Lundeström · Slap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P3 1:56BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Dylan Cozens, Owen Power · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 5:34BUFAlex TuchAssists: Dylan Cozens · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 9:31BUFHenri JokiharjuGWGAssists: Jack Quinn, Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:46BUFJordan Greenway: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 2:39BUFRasmus Dahlin: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:42ANAPavel Mintyukov: Interference2 min
- P1 15:54BUFPeyton Krebs: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:54ANAJacob Trouba: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:33BUFJJ Peterka: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:06ANARyan Strome: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:06BUFMattias Samuelsson: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:06ANAFrank Vatrano: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:06ANARyan Strome: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:06BUFPeyton Krebs: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:13BUFAlex Tuch: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:44ANAJacob Trouba: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Carlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Killorn – McTavish – Carlsson11:51
xG 0.30–0.62 (33%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Fabbri – Lundeström – Gauthier5:08
xG 0.09–0.54 (14%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
- Johnston – Harkins – Leason6:58
xG 0.05–0.81 (6%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry11:45
xG 0.20–1.15 (15%)attempts 7–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gudas – LaCombe15:14
xG 0.26–0.60 (31%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Helleson12:10
xG 0.17–1.16 (13%)attempts 6–22goals 0–1
- Trouba – Mintyukov12:02
xG 0.26–1.61 (14%)attempts 8–23goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Quinn – Peterka4:49
xG 0.68–0.06 (92%)attempts 14–2goals 2–0
- Malenstyn – Krebs – Benson4:58
xG 0.59–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Tuch – Greenway – Thompson4:57
xG 0.52–0.08 (87%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Greenway – Cozens – Quinn5:20
xG 0.46–0.11 (80%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Byram17:15
xG 1.71–0.31 (85%)attempts 28–10goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Jokiharju5:48
xG 0.61–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Power4:34
xG 0.51–0.10 (83%)attempts 12–4goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).