Sat, Mar 1, 2025·Ohio Stadium, ColumbusOutdoor game
Detroit Red Wings 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 014 | 111 | 221 | 346 |
| CBJ | 06 | 37 | 28 | 521 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:31CBJDenton MateychukAssists: Boone Jenner, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 13:06DETAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.37 xG1–1
- P2 17:23CBJDmitri VoronkovPPAssists: Kent Johnson, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–2
- P2 17:55CBJMathieu OlivierAssists: Justin Danforth · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 3:34DETPatrick KaneAssists: Simon Edvinsson, Albert Johansson · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 16:36DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 17:43CBJJustin DanforthGWGAssists: Zachary Aston-Reese, Ivan Provorov · Snap, 0.27 xG3–4
- P3 18:52CBJAdam FantilliENAssists: Zach Werenski, Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.81 xG3–5
Penalties (3)
- P2 12:18CBJDante Fabbro: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:15DETMoritz Seider: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:27CBJKirill Marchenko: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fantilli won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Veleno – Berggren3:17
xG 0.44–0.00 (99%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Larkin – Raymond – Kasper17:03
xG 0.80–0.43 (65%)attempts 25–15goals 0–0
- Motte – Fischer – Berggren4:45
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Veleno – Soderblom8:32
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Gustafsson12:45
xG 0.98–0.11 (90%)attempts 18–7goals 0–1
- Johansson – Edvinsson18:03
xG 0.79–0.65 (55%)attempts 30–12goals 1–2
- Chiarot – Seider20:09
xG 0.73–1.01 (42%)attempts 21–19goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestOlivier – Danforth – Aston-Reese11:23
xG 0.60–0.30 (66%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli14:27
xG 0.81–0.52 (61%)attempts 17–19goals 0–0
- Kuraly – LaBate – Pyyhtia9:06
xG 0.00–0.58 (0%)attempts 2–20goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Jenner – Johnson11:29
xG 0.34–1.02 (25%)attempts 7–21goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – Mateychuk14:24
xG 0.86–0.44 (66%)attempts 9–22goals 2–1
- Werenski – Provorov2:49
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Werenski – Fabbro21:44
xG 0.93–1.23 (43%)attempts 20–28goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).