Sat, Mar 1, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Montréal Canadiens 4, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 09 | 310 | 110 | 429 |
| BUF | 09 | 29 | 07 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:13MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Patrik Laine, Nick Suzuki · Slap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 6:04BUFAlex TuchAssists: Jacob Bryson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 7:33BUFJiri KulichAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, JJ Peterka · Slap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 13:33MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Christian Dvorak, Lane Hutson · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 19:57MTLAlex NewhookGWGAssists: Mike Matheson, Lane Hutson · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 18:22MTLJake EvansENAssists: Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.69 xG4–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:32BUFTage Thompson: Interference2 min
- P1 18:28MTLAlexandre Carrier: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:39BUFBowen Byram: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:35MTLAlexandre Carrier: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:52BUFJJ Peterka: Interference2 min
- P2 19:24MTLJayden Struble: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:24BUFBeck Malenstyn: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 12:08BUFJordan Greenway: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:08MTLArber Xhekaj: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:02MTLJayden Struble: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:02BUFJordan Greenway: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:02BUFDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:02BUFJJ Peterka: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Krebs
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Anderson – Dvorak10:20
xG 1.14–0.43 (73%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Laine – Newhook – Beck7:59
xG 0.24–0.08 (75%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Armia – Evans – Heineman8:14
xG 0.14–0.27 (33%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský10:16
xG 0.30–0.48 (38%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Hutson12:27
xG 1.31–0.36 (79%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
- Savard – Xhekaj10:06
xG 0.16–0.40 (28%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Matheson – Carrier14:02
xG 0.30–0.58 (35%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Greenway – Cozens9:18
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Thompson – Peterka – Kulich8:08
xG 0.27–0.05 (85%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Tuch – Greenway – McLeod2:03
xG 0.08–0.06 (56%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Malenstyn – Krebs – Quinn2:56
xG 0.05–0.07 (40%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Power8:17
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Power2:57
xG 0.14–0.07 (67%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Bryson2:06
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).