Mon, Mar 3, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Florida Panthers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 010 | 07 | 112 | 129 |
| FLA | 07 | 211 | 011 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:02FLAAleksander BarkovUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 15:16FLAAleksander BarkovPPGWGAssists: Mackie Samoskevich, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 2:07TBLBrayden PointAssists: Darren Raddysh, Jake Guentzel · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:36FLANiko Mikkola: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:50FLANiko Mikkola: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:41TBLEmil Lilleberg: Holding2 min
- P2 10:04FLAAaron Ekblad: Boarding2 min
- P2 15:10TBLJ.J. Moser: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:04FLAEetu Luostarinen: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 2:21FLATomas Nosek: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:05TBLBrandon Hagel: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 19:51FLAAnton Lundell: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundell won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Cirelli – Hagel3:57
xG 0.31–0.08 (80%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Cirelli – Hagel3:55
xG 0.28–0.19 (60%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Paul – Chaffee – Goncalves6:42
xG 0.13–0.09 (59%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Glendening – Girgensons – Eyssimont3:58
xG 0.05–0.01 (84%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Raddysh8:07
xG 0.57–0.35 (62%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Perbix – Moser2:05
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak11:54
xG 0.26–0.31 (45%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestNosek – Greer – Gadjovich4:18
xG 0.57–0.14 (81%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart11:45
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Bennett – Rodrigues – Samoskevich10:27
xG 0.19–0.26 (41%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Boqvist – Luostarinen – Lundell11:13
xG 0.17–0.50 (25%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling14:45
xG 1.07–0.88 (55%)attempts 19–16goals 1–1
- Jones – Mikkola15:36
xG 0.36–0.29 (55%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Schmidt10:03
xG 0.18–0.26 (40%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).