Tue, Mar 4, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
San Jose Sharks 6, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 010 | 211 | 47 | 628 |
| BUF | 05 | 111 | 16 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:01SJSTimothy LiljegrenAssists: William Eklund, Jake Walman · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 5:13BUFJJ PeterkaPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jack Quinn · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 18:22SJSNico SturmAssists: Collin Graf, Klim Kostin · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 2:19SJSWilliam EklundGWGAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Shakir Mukhamadullin · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 6:55BUFTage ThompsonAssists: JJ Peterka, Connor Clifton · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 7:58SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Shakir Mukhamadullin, Will Smith · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 12:49SJSWill SmithAssists: Fabian Zetterlund · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–2
- P3 18:01SJSTyler ToffoliENAssists: Jake Walman, Timothy Liljegren · Wrist, 0.36 xG6–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:49BUFAlex Tuch: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:54BUFDylan Cozens: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:00SJSJack Thompson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:16BUFRasmus Dahlin: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:16SJSLuke Kunin: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:32SJSBarclay Goodrow: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Sturm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestZetterlund – Smith – Celebrini10:17
xG 0.51–0.19 (72%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Kostin – Sturm – Graf3:20
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Kunin – Sturm7:12
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Kunin – Dellandrea3:22
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Liljegren10:35
xG 0.59–0.47 (56%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Vlasic – Thompson10:09
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Mukhamadullin16:51
xG 0.28–0.46 (38%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Greenway – Cozens8:08
xG 0.62–0.52 (54%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Malenstyn – Krebs – Benson2:20
xG 0.04–0.01 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- McLeod – Quinn – Benson6:31
xG 0.23–0.20 (53%)attempts 5–9goals 0–2
- Lafferty – Malenstyn – Krebs6:00
xG 0.13–0.19 (40%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Samuelsson4:07
xG 0.27–0.06 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Power2:02
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Bryson – Power4:23
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).