Tue, Mar 4, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New Jersey Devils 3, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 09 | 19 | 210 | 328 |
| DAL | 110 | 27 | 14 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:39DALWyatt JohnstonUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 6:30DALIlya LyubushkinAssists: Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 7:09NJDTimo MeierPPAssists: Nico Hischier, Luke Hughes · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 19:46DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Thomas Harley · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–3
- P3 12:18NJDNico HischierPPAssists: Luke Hughes, Jesper Bratt · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 15:52NJDBrett PesceAssists: Timo Meier, Jesper Bratt · Snap, 0.18 xG3–3
- P3 19:55DALThomas HarleyGWGAssists: Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P2 2:25NJDErik Haula: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:03DALMikael Granlund: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:26NJDBrenden Dillon: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:56NJDJohnathan Kovacevic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 19:34NJDLuke Hughes: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:28NJDStefan Noesen: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:47DALLian Bichsel: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stankoven won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Palat – Mercer10:35
xG 0.62–0.04 (94%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Haula – Noesen – Cotter2:12
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Meier – Bratt – Hischier13:05
xG 0.44–0.31 (59%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Haula – Dowling – Noesen6:28
xG 0.39–0.47 (46%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – Hughes10:16
xG 0.63–0.30 (68%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Dillon – Kovacevic5:50
xG 0.39–0.06 (86%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Pesce – Nemec2:22
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Dadonov – Johnston9:33
xG 0.78–0.27 (74%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Steel – Bäck – Bourque4:12
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Marchment9:59
xG 0.24–0.32 (43%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Hintz – Robertson – Stankoven5:38
xG 0.15–0.36 (29%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumba – Bichsel10:44
xG 0.56–0.18 (75%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Lyubushkin – Harley14:29
xG 0.40–0.64 (38%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Ceci – Lindell15:45
xG 0.36–0.63 (36%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).