Thu, Mar 6, 2025·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Boston Bruins 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 114 | 09 | 111 | 234 |
| CAR | 19 | 14 | 110 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:29CARSebastian AhoSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 18:55BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: Pavel Zacha, Andrew Peeke · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 2:06CARBrent BurnsAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 1:14BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: David Pastrnak, Andrew Peeke · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 19:41CARSeth JarvisGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:34BOSBrandon Carlo: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:44CARMikko Rantanen: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:21CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:39BOSMark Kastelic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:26BOSMatthew Poitras: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Zacha – Geekie11:34
xG 1.11–0.18 (86%)attempts 22–10goals 2–0
- Coyle – Lindholm – Tufte9:34
xG 0.30–0.23 (57%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Lettieri – Koepke – Poitras6:17
xG 0.03–0.04 (45%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Brown – Kastelic – Beecher7:22
xG 0.43–0.46 (48%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPeeke – Lohrei13:25
xG 1.11–0.10 (92%)attempts 22–13goals 2–0
- Wotherspoon – Mitchell9:47
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Zadorov – Carlo15:49
xG 0.61–1.02 (37%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRantanen – Aho – Jarvis14:25
xG 0.61–0.29 (68%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
- Roslovic – Jost – Robinson3:41
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hall – Kotkaniemi – Blake7:44
xG 0.16–0.29 (36%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Staal – Martinook – Robinson2:59
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Walker7:51
xG 0.35–0.06 (86%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Slavin – Chatfield4:10
xG 0.25–0.02 (93%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Chatfield8:12
xG 0.53–0.36 (60%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).