Fri, Mar 7, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
Detroit Red Wings 2, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 210 | 04 | 05 | 219 |
| WSH | 19 | 09 | 410 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:43DETDylan LarkinAssists: Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 7:00DETMoritz SeiderPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Lucas Raymond · Slap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 18:39WSHTaylor RaddyshAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Rasmus Sandin · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–1
- P3 0:51WSHAliaksei ProtasSHAssists: Tom Wilson · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 1:57WSHJakob ChychrunGWGAssists: Dylan Strome, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 5:17WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: Connor McMichael, John Carlson · Snap, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 9:19WSHTom WilsonSHAssists: Aliaksei Protas · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:24WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 9:07DETDominik Shine: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:07WSHBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:18WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Kneeing2 min
- P3 7:53WSHLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:01DETBen Chiarot: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Compher – Berggren12:47
xG 0.45–0.24 (66%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Kane – DeBrincat – Kasper13:02
xG 0.34–0.39 (47%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Motte – Shine – Rasmussen7:19
xG 0.08–0.27 (23%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Larkin – Soderblom – Raymond11:20
xG 0.27–1.32 (17%)attempts 6–15goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestJohansson – Edvinsson13:44
xG 0.74–0.41 (64%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Holl – Gustafsson14:16
xG 0.56–0.34 (62%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Seider15:11
xG 0.35–1.48 (19%)attempts 10–24goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Mangiapane – Raddysh8:35
xG 0.87–0.12 (88%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Dubois – McMichael – Protas7:32
xG 0.54–0.21 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Wilson – Dubois – McMichael4:12
xG 0.25–0.08 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Dowd – Duhaime – Frank8:37
xG 0.27–0.12 (69%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Fehérváry11:11
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Chychrun12:52
xG 0.32–0.10 (76%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry3:04
xG 0.13–0.05 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).