Sat, Mar 8, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New York Rangers 3, Ottawa Senators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 19 | 19 | 15 | 00 | 323 |
| OTT | 012 | 110 | 214 | 11 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:37NYRCarson SoucyAssists: Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 3:55NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: J.T. Miller, Will Cuylle · Snap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 4:06OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Nick Jensen · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 7:08NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Jonny Brodzinski, K'Andre Miller · Snap, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 10:16OTTRidly GreigAssists: Dylan Cozens, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 17:08OTTMichael AmadioAssists: David Perron · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–3
- OT 0:33OTTBrady TkachukGWGAssists: Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:57NYRSam Carrick: Elbowing2 min
- P1 15:11OTTRidly Greig: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:58NYRCarson Soucy: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:47NYRBraden Schneider: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:19OTTArtem Zub: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:15NYRJuuso Parssinen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBrodzinski – Rempe – Othmann6:51
xG 0.31–0.06 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Kreider – Carrick – Parssinen7:42
xG 0.29–0.40 (43%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
- Zibanejad – Miller – Cuylle9:47
xG 0.07–0.26 (21%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière12:46
xG 0.55–0.97 (36%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSoucy – Jones11:15
xG 0.46–0.15 (75%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Borgen – Miller12:38
xG 0.42–0.47 (47%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Vaakanainen – Schneider13:19
xG 0.48–1.15 (30%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle9:22
xG 0.64–0.15 (81%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Amadio – Pinto – Greig7:16
xG 0.25–0.08 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 0–2
- Amadio – Highmore – Pinto2:08
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Batherson – Cozens – Greig2:17
xG 0.01–0.05 (17%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Chabot12:13
xG 0.44–0.37 (54%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Sanderson – Zub12:22
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 6–4goals 0–2
- Hamonic – Kleven7:33
xG 0.12–0.25 (33%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).