Sat, Mar 8, 2025·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
New York Islanders 4, San Jose Sharks 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 28 | 013 | 27 | 428 |
| SJS | 020 | 19 | 111 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:43NYIAnthony DuclairPPAssists: Simon Holmstrom, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 19:21NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Noah Dobson, Adam Pelech · Slap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 6:27SJSNikolai KovalenkoPPAssists: Shakir Mukhamadullin, Macklin Celebrini · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 1:13NYIAnders LeeGWGAssists: Simon Holmstrom, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Slap, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 3:51NYIAdam BoqvistPPAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Tony DeAngelo · Slap, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 18:33SJSWill SmithPPAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:52NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:11SJSHenry Thrun: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:15SJSKlim Kostin: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:35NYIAnders Lee: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:00SJSNikolai Kovalenko: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:22NYIMarc Gatcomb: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:29SJSNikolai Kovalenko: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:45NYIAdam Boqvist: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Duclair – Horvat11:53
xG 1.09–0.40 (73%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Holmstrom10:26
xG 0.52–0.47 (53%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Engvall – MacLean – Gatcomb7:15
xG 0.13–0.22 (37%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Fasching – Tsyplakov8:31
xG 0.20–0.67 (23%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Dobson13:01
xG 0.95–0.17 (85%)attempts 23–8goals 2–0
- Pelech – Pulock2:00
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Romanov15:28
xG 0.34–0.75 (31%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Eklund – Celebrini2:44
xG 0.25–0.04 (85%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Grundstrom – Giles9:02
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Kostin – Smith – Celebrini8:52
xG 0.54–0.60 (47%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Dellandrea – Kovalenko – Graf6:19
xG 0.04–0.20 (17%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDesharnais – Thrun11:06
xG 0.35–0.20 (63%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Liljegren3:15
xG 0.48–0.45 (52%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Liljegren10:35
xG 0.66–0.66 (50%)attempts 8–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).