Mon, Mar 10, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Detroit Red Wings 1, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 09 | 027 | 113 | 149 |
| OTT | 09 | 19 | 15 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:39OTTDavid PerronPPAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P3 2:58DETDylan LarkinAssists: Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 14:56OTTDylan CozensPPGWGAssists: Jake Sanderson, Brady Tkachuk · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:39OTTAdam Gaudette: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:09DETJustin Holl: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:09OTTTim Stützle: Holding2 min
- P1 19:35DETSimon Edvinsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:24DETJustin Holl: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:58OTTRidly Greig: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:06OTTDrake Batherson: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:27DETBen Chiarot: Boarding2 min
- P3 14:44DETMoritz Seider: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Greig won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – DeBrincat – Kasper9:16
xG 0.96–0.03 (97%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Larkin – Soderblom – Raymond12:03
xG 0.41–0.13 (75%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Smith – Tarasenko – Compher8:20
xG 0.35–0.33 (51%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Motte – Shine – Rasmussen6:09
xG 0.06–0.12 (31%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Gustafsson9:55
xG 0.79–0.15 (84%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Seider13:58
xG 0.75–0.30 (71%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
- Johansson – Edvinsson13:15
xG 0.40–0.19 (67%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestHighmore – Gaudette – Zetterlund5:02
xG 0.25–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Amadio – Pinto – Greig10:46
xG 0.20–0.39 (34%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle9:35
xG 0.15–0.60 (20%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Perron – Batherson – Cozens7:48
xG 0.07–0.63 (10%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKleven – Matinpalo12:20
xG 0.47–0.25 (65%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub13:38
xG 0.17–0.42 (29%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
- Jensen – Chabot15:03
xG 0.17–1.46 (10%)attempts 10–28goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).