Mon, Mar 10, 2025·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Utah Hockey Club 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 213 | 17 | 04 | 02 | 2 | 426 |
| UTA | 04 | 315 | 010 | 04 | 1 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:42TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Matthew Knies · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 19:38TORCalle JarnkrokPPAssists: Max Domi, Morgan Rielly · Slap, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 4:48TORSimon BenoitAssists: David Kampf, Pontus Holmberg · Snap, 0.03 xG3–0
- P2 8:14UTAMichael CarconeAssists: Josh Doan, Jack McBain · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 9:03UTANick SchmaltzAssists: Olli Maatta, Clayton Keller · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 12:11UTABarrett HaytonPPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Dylan Guenther · Deflected, 0.15 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. UTA Nick Schmaltz stopped
- 2. TOR William Nylander stopped
- 3. UTA Logan Cooley stopped
- 4. TOR Auston Matthews scored
- 5. UTA Clayton Keller scored
- 6. TOR Mitch Marner scored
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:00TORBrandon Carlo: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:44UTAJosh Doan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:18UTAIan Cole: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:08UTALiam O'Brien: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:54TORSimon Benoit: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:54UTAMichael Kesselring: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:55TORSimon Benoit: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:06TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 14:23TORScott Laughton: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:06UTAAlexander Kerfoot: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:06TORJohn Tavares: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 6:22UTAClayton Keller: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Hayton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLorentz – Kampf – Holmberg6:50
xG 0.17–0.08 (67%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Tavares – Jarnkrok – Nylander10:12
xG 0.29–0.39 (42%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
- Laughton – Domi – McMann7:57
xG 0.05–0.31 (14%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
- Marner – Matthews – Knies8:39
xG 0.18–0.48 (28%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Benoit6:44
xG 0.14–0.07 (67%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- McCabe – Myers3:23
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – McCabe11:37
xG 0.29–0.39 (42%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Hayton – Guenther8:47
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 16–3goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Stenlund – Carcone4:59
xG 0.25–0.09 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Cooley10:03
xG 0.34–0.18 (65%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Crouse – McBain – Doan8:07
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Durzi11:24
xG 0.30–0.08 (80%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Cole – Maatta2:24
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Cole – Kesselring8:49
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).