Tue, Mar 11, 2025·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Ottawa Senators 5, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 16 | 216 | 22 | 524 |
| PHI | 05 | 211 | 06 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:24OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Claude Giroux, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 3:05PHIJamie DrysdaleAssists: Travis Konecny, Olle Lycksell · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 4:14OTTTyler KlevenAssists: David Perron, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 8:45PHIRodrigo AbolsAssists: Cam York, Jakob Pelletier · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 15:01OTTMichael AmadioGWGAssists: Adam Gaudette, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 10:59OTTDylan CozensUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 19:25OTTShane PintoENAssists: Michael Amadio, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.80 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:32PHINick Seeler: Interference2 min
- P1 7:52OTTTim Stützle: Holding2 min
- P2 10:39OTTTim Stützle: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:47PHIJamie Drysdale: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Batherson – Cozens8:46
xG 0.58–0.10 (85%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle10:16
xG 0.52–0.19 (73%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Stützle2:09
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Amadio – Pinto – Greig10:06
xG 0.33–0.44 (43%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKleven – Matinpalo12:37
xG 0.33–0.16 (68%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Sanderson – Zub15:51
xG 0.39–0.41 (48%)attempts 11–13goals 3–2
- Jensen – Chabot15:05
xG 0.28–0.62 (31%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – Abols – Pelletier4:11
xG 0.16–0.06 (71%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Konecny – Poehling – Lycksell9:12
xG 0.44–0.44 (50%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Couturier – Tippett – Michkov10:58
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Cates – Brink – Foerster11:36
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Seeler – Drysdale14:17
xG 0.53–0.56 (49%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
- Sanheim – York15:48
xG 0.58–0.61 (49%)attempts 19–11goals 1–3
- Ristolainen – Andrae11:54
xG 0.12–0.56 (18%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).