Sat, Mar 15, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Buffalo Sabres 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 17 | 16 | 16 | 00 | 1 | 319 |
| BUF | 012 | 110 | 214 | 01 | 2 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:07VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Tanner Pearson, Ivan Barbashev · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 12:06VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Tomas Hertl · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 12:13BUFRyan McLeodAssists: Jacob Bryson, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 9:53BUFJason ZuckerPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 17:27VGKJack EichelAssists: Mark Stone, Alex Pietrangelo · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 19:46BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Bowen Byram, Tage Thompson · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BUF Tage Thompson stopped
- 2. VGK Victor Olofsson scored
- 3. BUF Jack Quinn scored
- 4. VGK Jack Eichel stopped
- 5. BUF Alex Tuch scored
- 6. VGK Pavel Dorofeyev stopped
Penalties (8)
- P2 5:46VGKAdin Hill: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:25BUFPeyton Krebs: Instigator2 min
- P2 9:25BUFPeyton Krebs: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:25VGKBrett Howden: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:25BUFPeyton Krebs: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 11:47VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:47BUFJordan Greenway: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:36VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Barbashev – Eichel5:52
xG 0.29–0.06 (83%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Olofsson – Eichel – Kolesar2:27
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Stone – Olofsson – Eichel3:49
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Smith – Olofsson – Roy4:11
xG 0.20–0.09 (70%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Whitecloud20:48
xG 0.53–0.22 (71%)attempts 19–16goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Hague14:44
xG 0.47–0.43 (52%)attempts 16–15goals 2–0
- McNabb – Korczak14:31
xG 0.32–0.62 (34%)attempts 6–17goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestZucker – McLeod – Benson11:53
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Lafferty – Malenstyn – Kozak6:34
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Krebs – Quinn – Kulich5:03
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Malenstyn – Krebs2:51
xG 0.08–0.03 (73%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBryson – Byram14:08
xG 0.59–0.30 (66%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Byram – Power2:08
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Clifton – Power12:52
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).