Sat, Mar 15, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 37 | 18 | 425 |
| TOR | 05 | 27 | 011 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:49TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Nick Robertson, Brandon Carlo · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 7:57OTTJake SandersonAssists: Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 8:55TORAuston MatthewsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 12:16OTTDavid PerronAssists: Drake Batherson · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 14:08OTTClaude GirouxPPGWGAssists: Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 19:53OTTMichael AmadioENAssists: Ridly Greig · Wrist, 0.74 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 12:49TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:31TORScott Laughton: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:31OTTRidly Greig: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:51OTTArtem Zub: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle11:59
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Perron – Batherson – Cozens9:46
xG 0.25–0.17 (59%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Amadio – Pinto – Greig10:19
xG 0.25–0.63 (28%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Highmore – Gaudette – Zetterlund5:56
xG 0.07–0.47 (13%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub17:28
xG 0.26–0.11 (69%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Chabot18:06
xG 0.57–0.82 (41%)attempts 14–20goals 0–1
- Kleven – Matinpalo13:29
xG 0.24–0.74 (24%)attempts 17–17goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Nylander – Marner2:12
xG 0.46–0.15 (75%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies3:04
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Lorentz – Holmberg2:42
xG 0.14–0.01 (91%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Laughton – Nylander7:39
xG 0.17–0.06 (74%)attempts 2–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Carlo6:52
xG 0.53–0.13 (80%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Carlo – Benoit5:02
xG 0.36–0.02 (96%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly8:51
xG 0.32–0.06 (83%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).