Sat, Mar 15, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
34%
10%
9%
47%
TOR winsOTT wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
TOR forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against OTT's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Giroux–Tkachuk–Stützle | Amadio–Pinto–Greig | Perron–Batherson–Cozens | Highmore–Gaudette–Zetterlund | Giroux–Greig–Stützle | Amadio–Highmore–Pinto | Giroux–Highmore–Stützle | Batherson–Cozens–Greig | Amadio–Batherson–Pinto | Hamonic–Chabot | Sanderson–Zub | Kleven–Matinpalo | Chabot–Matinpalo | Kleven–Zub | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domi–Matthews–Knies | 1:460.04–0.00 | 4:470.07–0.10 | 0:400.00–0.00 | 0:420.08–0.00 | 0:360.00–0.00 | 2:580.15–0.00 | 6:170.04–0.11 | 1:040.00–0.12 | ||||||
| Tavares–Marner–McMann | 2:490.01–0.29 | 1:190.00–0.15 | 2:510.04–0.03 | 3:380.01–0.33 | 3:090.00–0.14 | 1:180.04–0.00 | ||||||||
| Jarnkrok–Laughton–Nylander | 1:460.00–0.01 | 1:200.00–0.00 | 2:260.00–0.05 | 0:330.17–0.00 | 0:450.00–0.00 | 2:510.00–0.05 | 2:170.00–0.00 | 1:290.00–0.00 | 0:310.17–0.00 | |||||
| Lorentz–Holmberg–Robertson | 3:390.13–0.07 | 4:280.16–0.07 | ||||||||||||
| Marner–Matthews–Knies | 1:170.00–0.00 | 1:060.22–0.00 | 1:340.00–0.00 | |||||||||||
| Jarnkrok–Lorentz–Holmberg | 0:440.00–0.00 | 0:530.08–0.00 | 0:420.06–0.01 | 1:090.00–0.00 | 1:000.08–0.01 | |||||||||
| Tavares–Robertson–McMann | 0:400.00–0.02 | 0:500.00–0.01 | 1:380.00–0.03 | |||||||||||
| Laughton–Nylander–Marner | 0:300.45–0.00 | 0:490.02–0.15 | 1:430.02–0.15 | |||||||||||
| Jarnkrok–Nylander–Matthews | 0:300.04–0.00 | 0:300.00–0.00 | 0:420.00–0.00 | |||||||||||
| Laughton–Domi–Nylander | 0:370.08–0.00 | 1:000.08–0.03 | ||||||||||||
| Nylander–Matthews–Knies | ||||||||||||||
| Tanev–McCabe | 2:590.04–0.18 | 2:210.01–0.09 | 1:520.04–0.03 | 0:540.00–0.00 | 3:200.12–0.18 | 5:040.04–0.11 | 1:570.01–0.02 | |||||||
| Ekman-Larsson–Rielly | 1:320.00–0.00 | 1:070.03–0.00 | 2:220.00–0.06 | 0:370.00–0.00 | 0:300.00–0.00 | 3:390.31–0.05 | 3:120.00–0.02 | 1:020.00–0.00 | ||||||
| Rielly–Carlo | 1:110.00–0.00 | 1:220.49–0.00 | 1:430.04–0.00 | 0:340.00–0.01 | 2:080.04–0.00 | 1:210.00–0.01 | 2:570.48–0.12 | |||||||
| Carlo–Benoit | 1:010.00–0.02 | 1:010.10–0.00 | 1:020.26–0.00 | 0:350.00–0.00 | 1:030.10–0.00 | 1:440.00–0.00 | 1:330.00–0.02 | |||||||
| Ekman-Larsson–Benoit | 1:380.07–0.11 | 1:140.00–0.15 | 0:360.00–0.00 | 1:310.00–0.15 | 1:230.07–0.11 | 1:200.05–0.00 | ||||||||
| Ekman-Larsson–Tanev | 0:480.00–0.03 | 0:380.00–0.00 | 1:340.10–0.15 | 0:350.00–0.00 | 2:400.10–0.18 | 1:200.02–0.00 | ||||||||
| Rielly–McCabe | 1:140.00–0.01 | 0:340.00–0.00 | 0:570.02–0.00 | 1:320.00–0.01 | 1:020.02–0.00 | |||||||||
| Ekman-Larsson–Carlo | 0:500.01–0.00 | 0:360.00–0.00 | 0:470.08–0.00 | 1:150.01–0.00 | 0:470.00–0.00 | 0:370.08–0.00 | ||||||||
| McCabe–Carlo | 0:440.13–0.00 | 0:400.13–0.00 | 0:470.00–0.00 | |||||||||||
| Ekman-Larsson–McCabe | 0:590.00–0.00 | 0:490.00–0.00 | 0:490.00–0.00 | |||||||||||
| McCabe–Benoit | 0:340.00–0.00 | 1:000.00–0.03 |
Every shift, one row per player.
TOROTTFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Oliver Ekman-LarssonTOR | 31 | 23:48 | 0:46 | 1:28 | 9 | 3 |
 Morgan RiellyTOR | 28 | 22:42 | 0:49 | 2:35 | 8 | 0 |
 Jake SandersonOTT | 32 | 22:18 | 0:42 | 1:38 | 2 | 9 |
 Thomas ChabotOTT | 27 | 22:15 | 0:49 | 2:00 | 1 | 2 |
 Artem ZubOTT | 31 | 22:03 | 0:43 | 3:02 | 2 | 7 |
 Auston MatthewsTOR | 25 | 21:55 | 0:53 | 2:41 | 8 | 3 |
 Matthew KniesTOR | 23 | 21:40 | 0:57 | 2:43 | 9 | 1 |
 Travis HamonicOTT | 25 | 21:10 | 0:51 | 2:04 | 1 | 2 |
 Mitch MarnerTOR | 25 | 20:32 | 0:49 | 2:39 | 4 | 4 |
 William NylanderTOR | 25 | 20:31 | 0:49 | 2:35 | 5 | 0 |
 Jake McCabeTOR | 30 | 20:26 | 0:41 | 1:39 | 4 | 5 |
 Tim StützleOTT | 27 | 20:02 | 0:45 | 1:40 | 8 | 0 |
 Michael AmadioOTT | 29 | 18:37 | 0:39 | 3:07 | 0 | 8 |
 John TavaresTOR | 21 | 18:05 | 0:52 | 1:27 | 4 | 3 |
 Shane PintoOTT | 31 | 18:00 | 0:35 | 1:08 | 0 | 8 |
 Brandon CarloTOR | 29 | 17:59 | 0:37 | 1:03 | 2 | 2 |
 Claude GirouxOTT | 27 | 17:56 | 0:40 | 1:41 | 7 | 1 |
 Ridly GreigOTT | 28 | 17:50 | 0:38 | 2:35 | 0 | 5 |
 Chris TanevTOR | 28 | 16:21 | 0:35 | 1:17 | 0 | 7 |
 Max DomiTOR | 20 | 16:03 | 0:48 | 1:13 | 6 | 1 |
 Tyler KlevenOTT | 27 | 16:00 | 0:36 | 1:14 | 3 | 0 |
 Drake BathersonOTT | 24 | 15:25 | 0:39 | 1:06 | 3 | 3 |
 Brady TkachukOTT | 25 | 15:21 | 0:37 | 1:04 | 8 | 0 |
 Nikolas MatinpaloOTT | 25 | 15:11 | 0:36 | 1:26 | 4 | 0 |
 Dylan CozensOTT | 27 | 14:16 | 0:32 | 1:01 | 3 | 2 |
 David PerronOTT | 26 | 14:04 | 0:32 | 1:00 | 2 | 1 |
 Calle JarnkrokTOR | 22 | 13:39 | 0:37 | 1:00 | 3 | 1 |
 Simon BenoitTOR | 22 | 13:07 | 0:36 | 1:41 | 1 | 2 |
 Bobby McMannTOR | 18 | 12:58 | 0:43 | 1:08 | 3 | 3 |
 Scott LaughtonTOR | 21 | 12:45 | 0:36 | 1:15 | 2 | 1 |
 Matthew HighmoreOTT | 23 | 11:42 | 0:31 | 0:57 | 3 | 2 |
 Nick RobertsonTOR | 16 | 10:10 | 0:38 | 0:58 | 1 | 3 |
 Pontus HolmbergTOR | 17 | 9:31 | 0:34 | 0:56 | 1 | 3 |
 Steven LorentzTOR | 16 | 8:50 | 0:33 | 1:00 | 1 | 3 |
 Fabian ZetterlundOTT | 16 | 8:24 | 0:32 | 0:55 | 3 | 0 |
 Adam GaudetteOTT | 15 | 7:26 | 0:30 | 0:51 | 2 | 0 |