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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 15, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Ottawa Senators 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.

TOR winsOTT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:41Shot by Batherson, saved by Stolarz
  3. P1 1:30Shot by Rielly, saved by Ullmark
  4. P1 5:40Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Ullmark
  5. P1 6:15Shot by Highmore, saved by Stolarz
  6. P1 6:16Shot by Gaudette, saved by Stolarz
  7. P1 7:48Shot by Marner, saved by Ullmark
  8. P1 9:17Shot by Sanderson, saved by Stolarz
  9. P1 9:39Shot by Sanderson, saved by Stolarz
  10. P1 10:38Shot by Hamonic, saved by Stolarz
  11. P1 11:58Shot by Rielly, saved by Ullmark
  12. P1 13:18Shot by McCabe, saved by Ullmark
  13. P1 14:03Shot by Perron, saved by Stolarz
  14. P1 14:35Shot by Giroux, saved by Stolarz
  15. P1 14:36Shot by Chabot, saved by Stolarz
  16. P1 18:44Shot by Sanderson, saved by Stolarz
  17. P1 0:00Period end
  18. P2 0:00Period start
  19. P2 3:05Shot by Holmberg, saved by Ullmark
  20. P2 6:31Shot by Robertson, saved by Ullmark
  21. P2 6:49Goal by Nylander (Robertson, Carlo)+18 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Jarnkrok, Laughton, Nylander, Carlo, Benoit · OTT Highmore, Chabot, Gaudette, Zetterlund, Matinpalo

  22. P2 6:59Shot by Greig, saved by Stolarz
  23. P2 7:00Shot by Amadio, saved by Stolarz
  24. P2 7:45Shot by Zub, saved by Stolarz
  25. P2 7:57Goal by Sanderson (Stützle, Tkachuk)+18 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Ekman-Larsson, Marner, Benoit, McMann · OTT Giroux, Tkachuk, Sanderson, Stützle, Zub

  26. P2 8:55Goal by Matthews, unassisted+18 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Rielly, Domi, Carlo, Matthews, Knies · OTT Hamonic, Amadio, Chabot, Pinto, Greig

  27. P2 10:12Shot by Lorentz, saved by Ullmark
  28. P2 12:16Goal by Perron (Batherson)+20 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Rielly, Domi, Carlo, Matthews, Knies · OTT Perron, Batherson, Kleven, Stützle, Matinpalo

  29. P2 12:49Ekman-Larsson: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, Jarnkrok, Laughton, Nylander, Benoit · OTT Highmore, Gaudette, Zetterlund, Sanderson, Zub

  30. P2 13:57Shot by Zetterlund, saved by Stolarz4v5
  31. P2 14:08Goal by Giroux (Chabot)4v5+24 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tanev, McCabe, Marner, Matthews · OTT Giroux, Perron, Chabot, Zetterlund, Greig

  32. P2 14:31Laughton: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TOR Jarnkrok, Rielly, Laughton, Nylander, Carlo · OTT Amadio, Pinto, Greig, Sanderson, Zub

  33. P2 14:31Greig: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TOR Jarnkrok, Rielly, Laughton, Nylander, Carlo · OTT Amadio, Pinto, Greig, Sanderson, Zub

  34. P2 17:30Shot by McCabe, saved by Ullmark
  35. P2 19:04Shot by Rielly, saved by Ullmark
  36. P2 0:00Period end
  37. P3 0:00Period start
  38. P3 0:25Shot by Nylander, saved by Ullmark
  39. P3 0:36Shot by Greig, saved by Stolarz
  40. P3 1:50Shot by Cozens, saved by Stolarz
  41. P3 2:04Shot by Giroux, saved by Stolarz
  42. P3 2:21Shot by Matinpalo, saved by Stolarz
  43. P3 2:57Shot by Jarnkrok, saved by Ullmark
  44. P3 3:56Shot by Nylander, saved by Ullmark
  45. P3 7:21Shot by Batherson, saved by Stolarz
  46. P3 8:40Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Stolarz
  47. P3 9:13Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Ullmark
  48. P3 9:29Shot by Tanev, saved by Ullmark
  49. P3 9:55Shot by Lorentz, saved by Ullmark
  50. P3 12:01Shot by Matthews, saved by Ullmark
  51. P3 14:51Zub: Delaying game puck over glass (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, Rielly, Marner, Matthews, Knies · OTT Perron, Amadio, Cozens, Sanderson, Zub

  52. P3 15:05Shot by Giroux, saved by Stolarz5v4
  53. P3 15:30Shot by Knies, saved by Ullmark5v4
  54. P3 16:59Shot by Rielly, saved by Ullmark
  55. P3 17:25Shot by Tavares, saved by Ullmark6v5
  56. P3 17:38Shot by Tavares, saved by Ullmark6v5
  57. P3 19:53Goal by Amadio (Greig)6v5+3 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Ekman-Larsson, Rielly, Nylander, Matthews, Knies · OTT Amadio, Pinto, Greig, Sanderson, Zub

  58. P3 0:00Period end
  59. P3 0:00Final