Sun, Mar 16, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Florida Panthers 2, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 01 | 29 | 014 | 224 |
| NYI | 012 | 010 | 412 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:00FLASam ReinhartAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Gustav Forsling · Snap, 0.26 xG1–0
- P2 4:48FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Eetu Luostarinen · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–0
- P3 6:29NYIMarc GatcombAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Pierre Engvall · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 12:16NYIMaxim TsyplakovAssists: Mike Reilly, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 12:33NYINoah DobsonGWGAssists: Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 19:53NYISimon HolmstromENAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:16FLAEetu Luostarinen: Elbowing2 min
- P1 17:26FLADmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min
- P2 2:49NYIKyle MacLean: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:47NYIMarc Gatcomb: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:48FLANate Schmidt: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacLean won the faceoff against Sturm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues9:01
xG 0.69–0.52 (57%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Boqvist – Luostarinen – Lundell9:41
xG 0.25–0.13 (67%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Greer – Gadjovich – Sturm9:00
xG 0.00–0.37 (0%)attempts 1–20goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Samoskevich11:06
xG 0.18–0.68 (21%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Forsling2:53
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Mikkola5:00
xG 0.14–0.03 (84%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Forsling – Balinskis3:36
xG 0.19–0.10 (66%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Pageau – Duclair9:02
xG 0.39–0.04 (91%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- MacLean – Gatcomb – Tsyplakov7:08
xG 0.40–0.07 (84%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Cizikas – Fasching – Engvall9:32
xG 0.29–0.46 (39%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Palmieri – Horvat – Holmstrom12:38
xG 0.33–0.66 (33%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Mayfield7:25
xG 0.28–0.01 (95%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Pulock – Dobson11:46
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Pulock – Romanov2:09
xG 0.03–0.04 (45%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).