Mon, Mar 17, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Calgary Flames 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 16 | 07 | 113 | 226 |
| TOR | 114 | 412 | 13 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:47TORMax DomiAssists: Simon Benoit, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 19:13CGYRasmus AnderssonAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Martin Pospisil · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 1:39TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 9:34TORNick RobertsonGWGAssists: Max Domi, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Snap, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 15:41TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: William Nylander, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P2 18:54TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Matthew Knies, William Nylander · Snap, 0.20 xG1–5
- P3 3:03TORBobby McMannAssists: Morgan Rielly, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–6
- P3 19:12CGYKevin BahlAssists: Dryden Hunt, Yegor Sharangovich · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:44TORSimon Benoit: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:10TORNick Robertson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 0:09CGYNazem Kadri: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:53TORNick Robertson: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:46CGYMatt Coronato: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 18:09CGYBrayden Pachal: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:47TORSimon Benoit: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:47TORSimon Benoit: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:47CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHunt – Farabee – Sharangovich10:06
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Pospisil8:32
xG 0.47–0.46 (51%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Lomberg – Rooney – Klapka6:51
xG 0.02–0.34 (7%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Coleman – Frost – Coronato11:05
xG 0.24–1.07 (19%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Bahl14:36
xG 0.75–0.52 (59%)attempts 16–13goals 2–0
- Bean – Pachal13:16
xG 0.26–0.76 (25%)attempts 14–16goals 0–2
- Weegar – Hanley14:42
xG 0.39–0.91 (30%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarner – Matthews – Knies10:01
xG 0.78–0.04 (95%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Holmberg10:06
xG 0.83–0.52 (61%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Domi – Robertson – McMann8:55
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Laughton – Lorentz8:47
xG 0.14–0.23 (37%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – McCabe12:16
xG 1.01–0.32 (76%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Rielly – Carlo14:46
xG 0.68–0.52 (57%)attempts 8–18goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Benoit12:56
xG 0.19–0.52 (27%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).