Tue, Mar 18, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 012 | 013 | 413 | 438 |
| PIT | 29 | 08 | 04 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:40PITJoona KoppanenAssists: Vladislav Kolyachonok, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 19:45PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Conor Timmins, Ryan Graves · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 0:17NYIKyle PalmieriUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 5:34NYINoah DobsonAssists: Bo Horvat, Kyle Palmieri · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 13:08NYIPierre EngvallGWGAssists: Noah Dobson, Hudson Fasching · Deflected, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 18:28NYISimon HolmstromENAssists: Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.62 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 19:45NYIPierre Engvall: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 4:48NYIBo Horvat: Abuse of officials2 min
- P2 12:02PITMatt Grzelcyk: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:43NYIRyan Pulock: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Pageau – Duclair9:46
xG 0.88–0.14 (86%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Fasching – Engvall10:21
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
- Palmieri – Horvat – Holmstrom12:51
xG 0.84–0.70 (55%)attempts 12–16goals 2–1
- MacLean – Gatcomb – Tsyplakov8:32
xG 0.28–0.19 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – DeAngelo16:24
xG 0.81–0.22 (78%)attempts 22–11goals 1–1
- Reilly – Mayfield7:23
xG 0.54–0.32 (63%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Pelech – Dobson2:46
xG 0.22–0.00 (98%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Heinen – Imama3:45
xG 0.11–0.06 (66%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte2:57
xG 0.05–0.04 (56%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Acciari – Koppanen – Lizotte6:30
xG 0.07–0.12 (37%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Malkin – Dewar – Tomasino8:41
xG 0.23–0.36 (39%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Timmins14:40
xG 0.67–0.20 (77%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Letang – Kolyachonok11:29
xG 0.23–0.62 (27%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
- Letang – Grzelcyk3:18
xG 0.03–0.43 (6%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).