Sat, Mar 22, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Calgary Flames 4, New York Islanders 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 113 | 113 | 17 | 12 | 435 |
| NYI | 211 | 06 | 19 | 03 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:36CGYMatt CoronatoAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 10:46NYIBo HorvatAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Simon Holmstrom · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 17:41NYIMarc GatcombAssists: Maxim Tsyplakov, Noah Dobson · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 6:03CGYMatt CoronatoAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Rasmus Andersson · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 17:09NYIKyle MacLeanAssists: Maxim Tsyplakov, Noah Dobson · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 17:38CGYJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Kevin Bahl · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 3:53CGYNazem KadriGWGAssists: Rasmus Andersson · Snap, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 12:25CGYJoel Hanley: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:06NYIKyle Palmieri: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:27NYIAdam Pelech: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frost won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Huberdeau – Frost – Coronato15:00
xG 0.65–0.72 (48%)attempts 16–16goals 2–0
- Lomberg – Rooney – Klapka4:29
xG 0.01–0.40 (3%)attempts 3–7goals 0–2
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary15:47
xG 0.34–0.75 (31%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Coleman – Hunt – Sharangovich11:24
xG 0.01–0.73 (2%)attempts 3–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Hanley – Pachal14:36
xG 0.28–0.47 (37%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Andersson – Bahl19:40
xG 0.83–1.22 (41%)attempts 19–23goals 2–2
- Bean – Miromanov15:19
xG 0.23–1.04 (18%)attempts 14–18goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – Fasching – Engvall10:15
xG 0.78–0.11 (87%)attempts 12–2goals 0–1
- MacLean – Gatcomb – Tsyplakov10:03
xG 0.82–0.33 (71%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Palmieri – Horvat – Holmstrom12:38
xG 0.58–0.36 (62%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Lee – Pageau – Duclair12:50
xG 0.54–0.48 (53%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Dobson12:55
xG 0.93–0.22 (81%)attempts 13–6goals 1–2
- Reilly – Pulock12:58
xG 0.90–0.70 (56%)attempts 20–19goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock2:18
xG 0.09–0.03 (72%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).