Sat, Mar 22, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
Florida Panthers 3, Washington Capitals 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 39 | 013 | 014 | 336 |
| WSH | 315 | 39 | 09 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:15WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 6:35FLASam BennettAssists: Mackie Samoskevich, Gustav Forsling · Snap, 0.22 xG1–1
- P1 12:24WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Connor McMichael, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Slap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 13:56FLASeth JonesAssists: Sam Bennett, Evan Rodrigues · Slap, 0.01 xG2–2
- P1 14:56WSHAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–3
- P1 15:27FLAJonah GadjovichAssists: Nico Sturm · Snap, 0.16 xG3–3
- P2 0:07WSHTom WilsonGWGAssists: Matt Roy, Martin Fehérváry · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–4
- P2 0:59WSHDylan StromeAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Aliaksei Protas · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–5
- P2 5:57WSHAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Martin Fehérváry · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:15FLANiko Mikkola: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:31FLAGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:27WSHJakob Chychrun: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:27FLAJonah Gadjovich: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:27WSHJakob Chychrun: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:27WSHJakob Chychrun: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:19WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBennett – Rodrigues – Samoskevich6:57
xG 0.74–0.51 (59%)attempts 13–7goals 2–1
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Rodrigues5:34
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart7:08
xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Barkov – Reinhart – Samoskevich3:55
xG 0.09–0.11 (46%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Balinskis6:18
xG 0.56–0.17 (76%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Mikkola – Bjornfot5:18
xG 0.58–0.50 (53%)attempts 5–6goals 1–3
- Mikkola – Balinskis7:38
xG 0.12–0.13 (47%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Beauvillier – Duhaime8:04
xG 0.68–0.23 (75%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Wilson – Dubois – McMichael9:54
xG 0.36–0.20 (64%)attempts 5–11goals 2–0
- Eller – Mangiapane – Raddysh8:01
xG 0.26–0.12 (69%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Dubois – McMichael2:05
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Sandin2:19
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Chychrun12:18
xG 0.56–0.27 (68%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Carlson – Sandin14:54
xG 0.74–0.51 (59%)attempts 15–17goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).