Sat, Mar 22, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Nashville Predators 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 212 | 05 | 09 | 226 |
| NSH | 06 | 313 | 213 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:16TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 13:05TORMitch MarnerAssists: Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 1:39NSHMichael BuntingPPAssists: Fedor Svechkov, Luke Evangelista · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 9:15NSHKieffer BellowsAssists: Cole Smith, Fedor Svechkov · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 19:13NSHFilip ForsbergGWGAssists: Luke Evangelista, Nick Blankenburg · Poke, 0.27 xG2–3
- P3 10:17NSHLuke EvangelistaAssists: Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–4
- P3 19:23NSHFilip ForsbergENAssists: Spencer Stastney, Michael McCarron · Backhand, 0.81 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:05NSHLuke Evangelista: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:45NSHKieffer Bellows: Hooking2 min
- P1 0:00TORMatthew Knies: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 5:37TORMax Domi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:32NSHNick Blankenburg: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:55TORSimon Benoit: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Lorentz – Kampf8:00
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Tavares – Nylander – McMann10:31
xG 0.23–0.33 (42%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Domi – Holmberg – Robertson9:55
xG 0.12–0.32 (28%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies10:20
xG 0.24–0.58 (30%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Benoit10:40
xG 0.25–0.12 (68%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Rielly – Carlo10:57
xG 0.41–0.52 (44%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly7:20
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Forsberg – Evangelista11:41
xG 0.61–0.29 (68%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Sissons – McCarron – L'Heureux10:12
xG 0.32–0.08 (81%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Bellows – Smith – Svechkov7:19
xG 0.17–0.19 (48%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Marchessault – Bunting9:35
xG 0.18–0.27 (41%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Blankenburg14:00
xG 0.79–0.26 (75%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Englund – Stastney10:18
xG 0.27–0.06 (82%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Stastney – Barron2:47
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).