Sun, Mar 23, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Florida Panthers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 216 | 16 | 03 | 02 | 0 | 327 |
| FLA | 14 | 114 | 111 | 02 | 1 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:25FLASam ReinhartAssists: Gustav Forsling · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 14:26PITBryan RustPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Sidney Crosby · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 19:25PITBryan RustAssists: Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 6:51PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Bryan Rust, Matt Grzelcyk · Slap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 9:25FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Sergei Bobrovsky · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 14:29FLAAnton LundellAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Nate Schmidt · Slap, 0.07 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. FLA Aleksander Barkov scored
- 2. PIT Rickard Rakell stopped
- 3. FLA Anton Lundell stopped
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 5. FLA Sam Reinhart stopped
- 6. PIT Bryan Rust stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:20FLAAnton Lundell: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:31FLAEvan Rodrigues: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:32PITBryan Rust: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:52FLAEvan Rodrigues: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 5:08PITConor Timmins: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Dewar – Tomasino12:25
xG 0.48–0.23 (67%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Hayes – Heinen – Imama4:46
xG 0.23–0.11 (69%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Acciari – Koppanen – Lizotte11:04
xG 0.08–0.20 (28%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell14:13
xG 0.54–1.16 (32%)attempts 16–24goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Kolyachonok8:03
xG 0.32–0.05 (86%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Timmins – Kolyachonok2:35
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Timmins15:44
xG 0.32–0.63 (34%)attempts 9–19goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart14:40
xG 1.22–0.41 (75%)attempts 25–12goals 1–1
- Greer – Gadjovich – Sturm3:45
xG 0.09–0.02 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Rodrigues – Luostarinen – Lundell9:59
xG 0.20–0.26 (44%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Bennett – Boqvist – Samoskevich11:32
xG 0.23–0.31 (42%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Forsling20:22
xG 1.22–0.69 (64%)attempts 32–15goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Mikkola8:27
xG 0.35–0.08 (81%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Bjornfot5:50
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).