Sun, Mar 23, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 013 | 115 | 19 | 237 |
| VGK | 313 | 08 | 19 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:02VGKNicolas RoyPPAssists: William Karlsson, Alex Pietrangelo · Snap, 0.34 xG0–1
- P1 13:33VGKTomas HertlAssists: Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 19:13VGKJack EichelGWGAssists: Zach Whitecloud · Slap, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 17:38TBLNick PaulAssists: Gage Goncalves, Darren Raddysh · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 17:18VGKNicolas HagueENAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Brett Howden · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–4
- P3 19:55TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Brandon Hagel · Slap, 0.07 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:46TBLNikita Kucherov: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:10VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:20TBLYanni Gourde: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:20TBLYanni Gourde: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:20VGKBrett Howden: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:09TBLNick Perbix: Interference2 min
- P1 19:55VGKBrett Howden: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:16VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:11TBLEmil Lilleberg: Boarding2 min
- P3 18:06VGKKeegan Kolesar: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGlendening – Gourde – Girgensons3:08
xG 0.51–0.08 (87%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel4:43
xG 0.44–0.11 (80%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Cirelli – Hagel – Goncalves3:44
xG 0.31–0.18 (64%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Paul3:55
xG 0.25–0.24 (51%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Moser5:38
xG 0.37–0.10 (80%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Hedman – Raddysh8:45
xG 0.55–0.38 (59%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Lilleberg3:18
xG 0.11–0.02 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Hertl – Dorofeyev8:53
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Howden8:39
xG 0.28–0.39 (42%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Kolesar – Roy7:39
xG 0.13–0.45 (22%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel10:15
xG 0.33–0.93 (26%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hanifin14:39
xG 1.33–0.59 (69%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- McNabb – Whitecloud12:23
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Hague – Whitecloud2:17
xG 0.12–0.40 (23%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).