Tue, Mar 25, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Ottawa Senators 2, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 110 | 19 | 013 | 232 |
| BUF | 111 | 17 | 16 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:35OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 18:31BUFJack QuinnAssists: JJ Peterka, Ryan McLeod · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 7:39OTTDavid PerronPPAssists: Ridly Greig, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 12:59BUFJacob Bernard-DockerAssists: Tyson Kozak, Peyton Krebs · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 1:23BUFTage ThompsonGWGAssists: Zach Benson, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:24BUFTage Thompson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:04BUFAlex Tuch: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:58OTTDavid Perron: Holding2 min
- P2 6:06BUFJJ Peterka: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 10:18BUFBowen Byram: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against Kozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestZetterlund – Tkachuk – Stützle11:27
xG 1.13–0.15 (88%)attempts 25–7goals 0–0
- Perron – Batherson – Cozens10:18
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Giroux – Pinto – Greig8:48
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Amadio – Highmore – Gaudette5:15
xG 0.03–0.24 (10%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Chabot15:15
xG 1.01–0.31 (76%)attempts 28–9goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub13:25
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- Hamonic – Kleven14:44
xG 0.43–0.60 (42%)attempts 17–16goals 0–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Kulich – Benson11:01
xG 0.75–0.46 (62%)attempts 21–15goals 1–0
- Malenstyn – Rosen – Kozak6:29
xG 0.05–0.14 (26%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Zucker – Tuch – Krebs8:08
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- McLeod – Quinn – Peterka11:59
xG 0.18–0.71 (20%)attempts 6–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Byram2:29
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin13:16
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Dahlin – Power2:26
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).