Thu, Mar 27, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Dallas Stars 5, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 111 | 25 | 23 | 519 |
| CGY | 013 | 118 | 117 | 248 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:09DALRoope HintzAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 8:12CGYNazem KadriAssists: Martin Pospisil, Connor Zary · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 12:55DALWyatt JohnstonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 14:11DALMikael GranlundGWGAssists: Mason Marchment, Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.20 xG3–1
- P3 0:16CGYNazem KadriPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 13:22DALMikko RantanenAssists: Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–2
- P3 18:11DALMatt DucheneENAssists: Mason Marchment, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.80 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:46CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:02CGYMartin Pospisil: Interference2 min
- P1 17:04DALMikko Rantanen: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:41DALWyatt Johnston: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:03DALIlya Lyubushkin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:31DALLian Bichsel: Interference2 min
- P3 19:31CGYAdam Klapka: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:31DALMikko Rantanen: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Bourque – Johnston3:42
xG 0.72–0.07 (91%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Steel – Bäck – Bourque4:50
xG 0.06–0.03 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Steel – Bäck4:12
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Hintz – Robertson11:56
xG 0.57–0.77 (43%)attempts 12–22goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Dumba – Bichsel11:15
xG 0.16–0.47 (25%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Lyubushkin – Harley14:06
xG 0.27–0.71 (27%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
- Ceci – Lindell14:05
xG 0.49–1.53 (24%)attempts 10–44goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Farabee11:09
xG 0.86–0.08 (91%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Frost – Coronato11:18
xG 0.72–0.39 (65%)attempts 20–6goals 0–1
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary8:20
xG 0.78–0.65 (55%)attempts 19–9goals 1–1
- Lomberg – Rooney – Klapka4:47
xG 0.03–0.27 (10%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Hanley16:01
xG 1.11–0.68 (62%)attempts 32–15goals 1–1
- Andersson – Bahl14:54
xG 0.96–0.66 (59%)attempts 26–18goals 0–2
- Bean – Miromanov9:31
xG 0.70–0.42 (63%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).