Thu, Mar 27, 2025·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, San Jose Sharks 6 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 110 | 211 | 28 | 06 | 1 | 535 |
| SJS | 216 | 210 | 17 | 02 | 2 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:50SJSTyler ToffoliAssists: Lucas Carlsson, Timothy Liljegren · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 14:40TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Matthew Knies, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 17:45SJSCollin GrafSHAssists: Mario Ferraro · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 1:39SJSAlexander WennbergAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Timothy Liljegren · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 4:46TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Matthew Knies, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–3
- P2 13:18SJSWilliam EklundUnassisted · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–4
- P2 15:13TORScott LaughtonAssists: David Kampf, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 3:02SJSTyler ToffoliPPAssists: William Eklund, Macklin Celebrini · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–5
- P3 19:01TORJohn TavaresAssists: Mitch Marner · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–5
- P3 19:46TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. TOR William Nylander scored
- 2. SJS Will Smith scored
- 3. TOR Auston Matthews stopped
- 4. SJS Macklin Celebrini scored
- 5. TOR Mitch Marner stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 13:50SJSTy Dellandrea: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:31SJSLucas Carlsson: Interference2 min
- P2 4:39SJSLucas Carlsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:23TORBobby McMann: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:36TORMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:36SJSZack Ostapchuk: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:36TORMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:36TORMax Domi: Misconduct10 min
- P3 2:50TORNick Robertson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:51TORJake McCabe: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:27SJSShakir Mukhamadullin: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Celebrini
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Lorentz – Kampf6:23
xG 0.12–0.02 (84%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Laughton – Domi – Robertson6:59
xG 0.26–0.18 (60%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – McMann10:16
xG 0.64–0.82 (44%)attempts 14–18goals 0–1
- Marner – Matthews – Knies11:48
xG 0.28–0.58 (32%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Benoit2:18
xG 0.15–0.03 (82%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Rielly – Carlo9:33
xG 0.54–0.43 (56%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Tanev – McCabe10:39
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestEklund – Smith – Celebrini10:59
xG 0.58–0.20 (74%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Wennberg – Graf9:16
xG 0.79–0.65 (55%)attempts 18–16goals 2–0
- Goodrow – Grundstrom – Ostapchuk6:28
xG 0.02–0.01 (73%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Giles – Dellandrea – Lund7:36
xG 0.23–0.44 (34%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlsson – Liljegren14:04
xG 1.10–0.45 (71%)attempts 25–12goals 2–0
- Desharnais – Cagnoni9:02
xG 0.36–0.34 (52%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Ferraro – Mukhamadullin16:37
xG 0.51–0.55 (48%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).