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Ice Lab

Wed, Apr 2, 2025·Lenovo Center, Raleigh

Washington Capitals 1, Carolina Hurricanes 5

Away

Washington Capitals

1

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.

CAR winsWSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
WSH0511204121
CAR31216113531

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:14CARSean WalkerUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P1 10:11CARJackson BlakePPGWGAssists: Taylor Hall, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
  3. P1 13:21CARSeth JarvisPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Sebastian Aho · Slap, 0.10 xG0–3
  4. P2 9:27CARLogan StankovenAssists: Jack Roslovic · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–4
  5. P2 19:25WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Dylan Strome · Slap, 0.15 xG1–4
  6. P3 6:55CARJackson BlakePPAssists: Seth Jarvis · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–5
Penalties (33)
  1. P1 9:29WSHLars Eller: Interference2 min · PPG
  2. P1 13:05WSHRasmus Sandin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  3. P1 14:41CARShayne Gostisbehere: Tripping2 min
  4. P1 17:43CARTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
  5. P1 19:22WSHConnor McMichael: Cross checking2 min
  6. P2 6:57WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Interference2 min
  7. P2 11:46CARShayne Gostisbehere: Interference2 min
  8. P2 11:46WSHAndrew Mangiapane: High sticking2 min
  9. P2 18:27CARTaylor Hall: Holding2 min · PPG
  10. P2 19:04CARBrent Burns: Holding2 min
  11. P3 6:20WSHJakob Chychrun: Slashing2 min · PPG
  12. P3 11:39WSHDylan Strome: Slashing2 min
  13. P3 11:39WSHDylan Strome: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 11:39CARSeth Jarvis: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 12:58WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 12:58WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
  17. P3 12:58CARLogan Stankoven: Roughing2 min
  18. P3 12:58WSHTom Wilson: Misconduct10 min
  19. P3 12:58CARLogan Stankoven: Misconduct10 min
  20. P3 14:26CARMark Jankowski: Cross checking2 min
  21. P3 14:26WSHNic Dowd: Roughing2 min
  22. P3 14:26CARMark Jankowski: Roughing2 min
  23. P3 14:26CARTyson Jost: Fighting5 min
  24. P3 14:26WSHBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
  25. P3 14:26WSHNic Dowd: Misconduct10 min
  26. P3 14:26CARMark Jankowski: Misconduct10 min
  27. P3 14:26WSHBrandon Duhaime: Misconduct10 min
  28. P3 14:26CARTyson Jost: Misconduct10 min
  29. P3 14:38WSHConnor McMichael: Roughing2 min
  30. P3 14:38WSHConnor McMichael: Fighting5 min
  31. P3 14:38CARJalen Chatfield: Fighting5 min
  32. P3 14:38WSHConnor McMichael: Misconduct10 min
  33. P3 14:38CARJalen Chatfield: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← WSH attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Roslovic
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WSHCAR
21Shots on goal31
2.6Expected goals3.8
46Shot attempts65
28Faceoffs won29
4Power plays8
74Penalty minutes68
35Hits15
14Blocked shots12
17Giveaways17
7Takeaways1

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Washington Capitals

Forward lines

  1. bestStrome – Protas – Leonard5:07

    xG 0.24–0.02 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0

  2. Ovechkin – Wilson – Dubois6:23

    xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0

  3. Strome – McMichael – Leonard4:09

    xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0

  4. Dowd – Duhaime – McMichael2:05

    xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestvan Riemsdyk – Sandin8:11

    xG 0.35–0.23 (61%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0

  2. Carlson – Chychrun5:48

    xG 0.32–0.20 (62%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1

  3. van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry2:57

    xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0

Carolina Hurricanes

Forward lines

  1. bestMartinook – Kotkaniemi – Stankoven7:49

    xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0

  2. Jankowski – Jost – Robinson3:35

    xG 0.25–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0

  3. Aho – Jarvis – Blake7:47

    xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0

  4. Hall – Jankowski – Robinson2:09

    xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestGostisbehere – Walker10:48

    xG 0.78–0.18 (81%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0

  2. Burns – Slavin11:18

    xG 0.57–0.39 (59%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0

  3. Orlov – Chatfield13:37

    xG 0.56–0.58 (49%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 3.8 xGWSH 2.6 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARWSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 13/100 · #1138 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.53 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 57% (winner's lowest chance)
WSH 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +11 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.

CAR winsWSH wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − WSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).