Sat, Apr 5, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 02 | 213 | 05 | 04 | 0 | 224 |
| BUF | 09 | 112 | 113 | 04 | 2 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:35TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 4:47BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Zach Benson · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 13:01TBLGage GoncalvesAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 5:07BUFJason ZuckerPPAssists: Alex Tuch, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BUF Tage Thompson stopped
- 2. TBL Jake Guentzel stopped
- 3. BUF Jack Quinn scored
- 4. TBL Brayden Point stopped
- 5. BUF Alex Tuch scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:28TBLBrandon Hagel: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:35BUFOwen Power: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:58TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:36BUFNoah Ostlund: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:59BUFJack Quinn: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 4:34TBLGage Goncalves: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Krebs
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Guentzel – Point12:52
xG 0.63–0.51 (56%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Goncalves7:36
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Glendening – Girgensons – Paul2:04
xG 0.15–0.07 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Paul – Cirelli – Hagel9:08
xG 0.11–0.50 (17%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Lilleberg3:01
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Hedman – Raddysh4:49
xG 0.20–0.23 (47%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Perbix – Lilleberg5:35
xG 0.06–0.25 (20%)attempts 2–7goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Kulich – Benson11:30
xG 0.59–0.04 (94%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Thompson – Peterka – Kulich2:37
xG 0.20–0.11 (66%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Malenstyn – Ostlund5:18
xG 0.14–0.05 (74%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Malenstyn – Krebs2:25
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBernard-Docker – Power12:55
xG 0.38–0.08 (83%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin12:44
xG 0.60–0.50 (55%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Clifton – Byram12:24
xG 0.40–0.47 (46%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).