Sat, Apr 5, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 69% of the time.
61%
24%
BUF winsTBL wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
BUF forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against TBL's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Kucherov–Guentzel–Point | Paul–Cirelli–Hagel | Gourde–Bjorkstrand–Goncalves | Glendening–Girgensons–Paul | Kucherov–Cirelli–Hagel | Glendening–Girgensons–Hagel | Glendening–Gourde–Girgensons | Guentzel–Point–Goncalves | Gourde–Paul–Cirelli | McDonagh–Cernak | Hedman–Moser | Perbix–Lilleberg | Hedman–Raddysh | Raddysh–Lilleberg | McDonagh–Moser | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thompson–Kulich–Benson | 2:320.09–0.03 | 4:210.39–0.00 | 1:010.07–0.00 | 0:470.00–0.01 | 1:010.03–0.00 | 6:010.44–0.01 | 2:190.06–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.02 | |||||||
| Zucker–Tuch–Krebs | 3:460.02–0.12 | 1:130.03–0.00 | 1:120.00–0.34 | 0:510.03–0.00 | 0:520.00–0.00 | 0:330.00–0.00 | 3:080.02–0.34 | 3:210.07–0.00 | 1:160.05–0.00 | 1:440.06–0.12 | 0:410.00–0.00 | ||||
| McLeod–Quinn–Peterka | 2:100.05–0.32 | 1:040.00–0.00 | 2:530.02–0.11 | 0:340.00–0.00 | 2:020.00–0.00 | 2:510.13–0.20 | 0:500.00–0.06 | 1:450.04–0.07 | 0:370.00–0.19 | ||||||
| Lafferty–Malenstyn–Ostlund | 0:400.00–0.00 | 1:240.07–0.00 | 0:320.07–0.00 | 1:000.00–0.00 | 1:490.07–0.00 | 1:550.07–0.00 | |||||||||
| Thompson–Peterka–Kulich | 0:300.00–0.11 | 1:020.20–0.00 | 0:400.00–0.00 | 2:350.20–0.11 | |||||||||||
| Lafferty–Malenstyn–Krebs | 2:080.00–0.06 | 0:370.00–0.00 | 0:450.00–0.00 | ||||||||||||
| Bernard-Docker–Power | 4:210.10–0.00 | 3:520.27–0.05 | 0:440.00–0.00 | 1:320.00–0.00 | 0:380.00–0.00 | 4:570.27–0.05 | 3:380.10–0.00 | 1:330.00–0.00 | 0:330.00–0.00 | 0:360.00–0.00 | |||||
| Samuelsson–Dahlin | 4:150.20–0.37 | 2:120.18–0.00 | 0:540.00–0.03 | 1:240.03–0.10 | 2:150.14–0.03 | 4:050.36–0.10 | 1:440.03–0.00 | 2:150.06–0.18 | 1:250.00–0.19 | ||||||
| Clifton–Byram | 5:320.15–0.08 | 2:040.21–0.00 | 1:090.00–0.29 | 0:470.00–0.01 | 1:020.03–0.00 | 5:500.24–0.29 | 1:310.00–0.00 | 1:460.11–0.06 | 1:110.04–0.00 | ||||||
| Samuelsson–Byram | 1:290.00–0.12 | 0:460.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Clifton–Power | 0:480.00–0.11 | ||||||||||||||
| Dahlin–Power | 1:060.00–0.07 | 1:050.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Samuelsson–Power | 0:500.00–0.10 | ||||||||||||||
| Dahlin–Byram | 0:460.07–0.00 | ||||||||||||||
| Clifton–Samuelsson | 0:360.00–0.11 |
Every shift, one row per player.
BUFTBLFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Victor HedmanTBL | 29 | 25:28 | 0:53 | 3:22 | 3 | 3 |
 Ryan McDonaghTBL | 27 | 24:50 | 0:55 | 1:53 | 2 | 5 |
 Jake GuentzelTBL | 25 | 24:31 | 0:59 | 2:10 | 7 | 2 |
 Nikita KucherovTBL | 25 | 23:25 | 0:56 | 2:13 | 7 | 3 |
 Rasmus DahlinBUF | 29 | 23:16 | 0:48 | 2:12 | 3 | 2 |
 Tage ThompsonBUF | 25 | 22:50 | 0:55 | 1:41 | 6 | 4 |
 Mattias SamuelssonBUF | 24 | 22:27 | 0:56 | 2:08 | 1 | 2 |
 Brayden PointTBL | 25 | 22:24 | 0:54 | 2:08 | 7 | 2 |
 Brandon HagelTBL | 27 | 21:53 | 0:49 | 1:40 | 3 | 4 |
 Erik CernakTBL | 25 | 21:00 | 0:50 | 1:51 | 3 | 5 |
 Bowen ByramBUF | 27 | 20:18 | 0:45 | 1:26 | 1 | 5 |
 Connor CliftonBUF | 24 | 20:14 | 0:51 | 1:23 | 1 | 7 |
 Owen PowerBUF | 23 | 20:12 | 0:53 | 1:37 | 6 | 1 |
 Alex TuchBUF | 23 | 19:54 | 0:52 | 1:52 | 4 | 3 |
 JJ PeterkaBUF | 24 | 19:35 | 0:49 | 1:59 | 5 | 5 |
 Anthony CirelliTBL | 23 | 19:27 | 0:51 | 1:29 | 2 | 3 |
 J.J. MoserTBL | 24 | 19:23 | 0:48 | 1:21 | 2 | 3 |
 Ryan McLeodBUF | 24 | 18:17 | 0:46 | 2:04 | 5 | 5 |
 Jiri KulichBUF | 22 | 18:04 | 0:49 | 1:29 | 4 | 4 |
 Nick PaulTBL | 23 | 17:29 | 0:46 | 1:25 | 3 | 3 |
 Yanni GourdeTBL | 22 | 17:22 | 0:47 | 1:23 | 2 | 3 |
 Zach BensonBUF | 19 | 16:06 | 0:51 | 1:23 | 3 | 3 |
 Peyton KrebsBUF | 21 | 15:49 | 0:45 | 1:14 | 3 | 1 |
 Jason ZuckerBUF | 18 | 15:47 | 0:53 | 2:48 | 4 | 1 |
 Jacob Bernard-DockerBUF | 18 | 14:10 | 0:47 | 1:35 | 3 | 1 |
 Oliver BjorkstrandTBL | 15 | 13:50 | 0:55 | 1:26 | 2 | 0 |
 Jack QuinnBUF | 21 | 13:22 | 0:38 | 1:17 | 4 | 3 |
 Gage GoncalvesTBL | 14 | 11:42 | 0:50 | 1:40 | 1 | 0 |
 Darren RaddyshTBL | 16 | 11:41 | 0:44 | 1:05 | 2 | 0 |
 Beck MalenstynBUF | 14 | 11:01 | 0:47 | 1:12 | 2 | 0 |
 Emil LillebergTBL | 13 | 10:20 | 0:48 | 1:30 | 1 | 0 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsTBL | 15 | 9:52 | 0:39 | 1:10 | 1 | 3 |
 Luke GlendeningTBL | 15 | 9:15 | 0:37 | 1:11 | 1 | 7 |
 Sam LaffertyBUF | 12 | 9:01 | 0:45 | 1:09 | 2 | 0 |
 Noah OstlundBUF | 11 | 8:37 | 0:47 | 1:05 | 2 | 0 |
 Nick PerbixTBL | 10 | 6:36 | 0:40 | 0:49 | 1 | 1 |