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Ice Lab

Tue, Apr 8, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Ottawa Senators 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 5

Away

Ottawa Senators

2

Final

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.

CBJ winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT09114112235
CBJ211114210535

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:00CBJDmitri VoronkovAssists: Mathieu Olivier · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P1 16:38CBJJustin DanforthAssists: Denton Mateychuk, Sean Kuraly · Snap, 0.18 xG0–2
  3. P2 16:18OTTFabian ZetterlundPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.26 xG1–2
  4. P2 19:38CBJMathieu OlivierGWGAssists: Justin Danforth, Erik Gudbranson · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–3
  5. P3 2:37CBJSean MonahanPPAssists: Kent Johnson, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
  6. P3 11:42CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Kent Johnson, Ivan Provorov · Snap, 0.25 xG1–5
  7. P3 15:10OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Drake Batherson, David Perron · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 7:13CBJAdam Fantilli: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  2. P1 19:09OTTNikolas Matinpalo: Slashing2 min
  3. P2 4:29CBJSean Kuraly: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 4:29OTTMatthew Highmore: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 6:57CBJZach Werenski: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 14:31CBJDante Fabbro: Slashing2 min · PPG
  7. P3 1:41OTTTim Stützle: Hooking2 min · PPG
  8. P3 5:57CBJSean Monahan: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Sillinger
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTCBJ
35Shots on goal35
3.1Expected goals3.0
73Shot attempts72
22Faceoffs won32
4Power plays2
6Penalty minutes10
27Hits23
23Blocked shots20
13Giveaways16
0Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 3.0 xGOTT 3.1 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 41/100 · #764 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.82 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 57% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.

CBJ winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).