Sun, Apr 13, 2025·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 211 | 07 | 27 | 425 |
| TBL | 15 | 415 | 211 | 731 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:35TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 19:37BUFJiri KulichAssists: Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 19:52BUFConnor CliftonAssists: Peyton Krebs, Jack Quinn · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 3:02TBLRyan McDonaghAssists: Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 6:34TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Victor Hedman, Yanni Gourde · Snap, 0.29 xG2–3
- P2 14:21TBLConor GeekieAssists: Gage Goncalves, Nick Paul · Snap, 0.22 xG2–4
- P2 16:45TBLEmil LillebergGWGAssists: Mitchell Chaffee, Gage Goncalves · Snap, 0.02 xG2–5
- P3 2:39TBLNikita KucherovUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG2–6
- P3 8:39BUFAlex TuchPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, JJ Peterka · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–6
- P3 13:12TBLJake GuentzelPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–7
- P3 18:23BUFSam LaffertyAssists: Rasmus Dahlin · Snap, 0.11 xG4–7
Penalties (4)
- P2 18:41BUFJacob Bernard-Docker: Interference2 min
- P3 6:58TBLEmil Lilleberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:08TBLZemgus Girgensons: Holding2 min
- P3 12:26BUFJJ Peterka: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Kulich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).