Thu, Apr 17, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Washington Capitals 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 15 | 112 | 03 | 220 |
| PIT | 113 | 211 | 214 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:08WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 4:54PITBryan RustAssists: Ville Koivunen, Matt Grzelcyk · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 7:19PITBryan RustPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Ville Koivunen · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 11:56PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Philip Tomasino, Connor Dewar · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 16:56WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Dylan Strome, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 8:46PITDanton HeinenSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 9:01PITPhilip TomasinoAssists: Rickard Rakell, Matt Grzelcyk · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P2 6:19WSHAndrew Mangiapane: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 7:56WSHDylan McIlrath: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:51PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:46PITRickard Rakell: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Dubois – McMichael8:29
xG 0.27–0.15 (65%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier5:55
xG 0.27–0.14 (65%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Mangiapane – Beauvillier – Leonard2:06
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Eller – Mangiapane – Leonard5:43
xG 0.32–0.41 (44%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Alexeyev5:31
xG 0.39–0.14 (74%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Chychrun5:25
xG 0.20–0.18 (52%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- McIlrath – van Riemsdyk2:40
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Koivunen13:57
xG 1.31–0.51 (72%)attempts 21–17goals 1–0
- Koppanen – Dewar – Tomasino11:20
xG 0.27–0.05 (86%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Rakell – Heinen11:42
xG 0.58–0.44 (57%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Poulin – Puustinen – Ponomarev7:56
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Grzelcyk18:43
xG 1.21–0.49 (71%)attempts 27–15goals 3–0
- Shea – Timmins16:17
xG 0.97–0.30 (76%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Graves – Kolyachonok12:24
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).