Wed, Oct 8, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 111 | 114 | 06 | 231 |
| TOR | 18 | 110 | 39 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:00TORBobby McMannAssists: William Nylander, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 5:39MTLOliver KapanenSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 1:30MTLZachary BolducAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Kirby Dach · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 5:40TORCalle JarnkrokAssists: Morgan Rielly, Steven Lorentz · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 9:02TORMorgan RiellyGWGAssists: Matthew Knies, Matias Maccelli · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 18:28TORAuston MatthewsENAssists: William Nylander · Wrist, 0.82 xG2–4
- P3 19:45TORWilliam NylanderENAssists: Steven Lorentz, John Tavares · Backhand, 0.82 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:08MTLPatrik Laine: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:44TORWilliam Nylander: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:38TORMatthew Knies: Holding2 min
- P3 5:06MTLIvan Demidov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský13:19
xG 1.37–0.53 (72%)attempts 21–8goals 0–1
- Anderson – Evans – Laine8:33
xG 0.14–0.16 (47%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Dach – Bolduc8:39
xG 0.36–0.47 (44%)attempts 8–14goals 1–2
- Newhook – Kapanen – Demidov9:48
xG 0.18–0.40 (31%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Dobson16:58
xG 1.53–0.52 (75%)attempts 21–12goals 0–0
- Xhekaj – Hutson3:20
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Carrier – Guhle5:33
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nylander – McMann11:26
xG 0.64–0.32 (67%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Matthews – Maccelli – Knies10:32
xG 0.55–0.35 (61%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Domi – Joshua – Robertson7:55
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Jarnkrok – Roy – Lorentz8:12
xG 0.20–0.32 (39%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Carlo13:12
xG 0.95–0.40 (70%)attempts 15–13goals 3–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Benoit10:44
xG 0.37–0.06 (86%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Tanev – McCabe17:34
xG 0.33–1.28 (21%)attempts 11–27goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).