Thu, Oct 9, 2025·TD Garden, Boston
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Boston Bruins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 17 | 18 | 16 | 03 | 324 |
| BOS | 111 | 17 | 113 | 12 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:53BOSCasey MittelstadtUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 8:19CHIConnor BedardAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Colton Dach · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 2:22CHILouis CrevierAssists: Connor Bedard, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 9:10BOSTanner JeannotAssists: Michael Eyssimont, Henri Jokiharju · Snap, 0.21 xG2–2
- P3 0:15BOSElias LindholmPPAssists: Pavel Zacha, David Pastrnak · Snap, 0.39 xG2–3
- P3 2:22CHIAndre BurakovskyAssists: Artyom Levshunov, Frank Nazar · Snap, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 2:12BOSFraser MintenGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 13:01CHIJason Dickinson: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:16BOSDavid Pastrnak: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:08BOSMarat Khusnutdinov: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:48CHIRyan Greene: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:48CHINick Foligno: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 4:07CHIFrank Nazar: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:50BOSCharlie McAvoy: Interference2 min
- P3 11:45BOSNikita Zadorov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:45BOSSean Kuraly: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:45CHIFrank Nazar: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:45CHIArtyom Levshunov: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:18CHIArtyom Levshunov: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against Mittelstadt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greene – Bedard3:59
xG 0.24–0.04 (87%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Burakovsky – Dach – Bedard7:56
xG 0.49–0.49 (50%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Dickinson – Donato – Mikheyev5:21
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Bertuzzi – Nazar9:24
xG 0.40–0.71 (36%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKaiser – Levshunov11:33
xG 0.59–0.25 (70%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Crevier2:05
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 2–0
- Murphy – Kaiser2:35
xG 0.01–0.00 (57%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEyssimont – Jeannot – Minten8:27
xG 0.58–0.41 (59%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Lindholm – Pastrnak – Geekie9:29
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Kastelic – Khusnutdinov5:22
xG 0.08–0.15 (35%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Arvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt10:40
xG 0.21–0.47 (31%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcAvoy – Lohrei8:37
xG 0.39–0.03 (93%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- McAvoy – Jokiharju3:59
xG 0.44–0.19 (70%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
- Lindholm – Peeke3:59
xG 0.18–0.00 (98%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).