Thu, Oct 9, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Montréal Canadiens 5, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 39 | 25 | 03 | 517 |
| DET | 111 | 011 | 09 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:50DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 10:14MTLZachary BolducAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 12:43MTLOliver KapanenGWGAssists: Alex Newhook, Ivan Demidov · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P1 19:53MTLMike MathesonAssists: Nick Suzuki, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 5:19MTLAlexandre CarrierAssists: Arber Xhekaj, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.00 xG4–1
- P2 17:12MTLJuraj SlafkovskýPPAssists: Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.22 xG5–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:13MTLNoah Dobson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 5:51DETMarco Kasper: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:15MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:53DETSimon Edvinsson: Interference2 min
- P2 17:05DETMoritz Seider: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:32MTLArber Xhekaj: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 16:42MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Dach – Bolduc9:33
xG 0.42–0.23 (64%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský10:12
xG 0.49–0.51 (49%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Newhook – Kapanen – Demidov9:25
xG 0.14–0.30 (32%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Anderson – Evans – Laine9:29
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuhle – Hutson15:47
xG 0.52–0.43 (54%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Xhekaj – Hutson2:49
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Matheson – Dobson13:21
xG 0.32–0.46 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCopp – Compher – Brandsegg-Nygård10:09
xG 0.55–0.19 (74%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Appleton – Rasmussen – Soderblom9:19
xG 0.26–0.14 (65%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Kane – DeBrincat – Kasper10:01
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Larkin – Raymond – Finnie9:23
xG 0.19–0.29 (39%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdvinsson – Sandin-Pellikka18:07
xG 0.58–0.14 (80%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
- Seider – Johansson6:56
xG 0.29–0.10 (75%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Seider7:17
xG 0.28–0.11 (73%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).