Thu, Oct 9, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Dallas Stars 5, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 29 | 017 | 311 | 537 |
| WPG | 17 | 07 | 311 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:15DALMikko RantanenAssists: Roope Hintz, Sam Steel · Snap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 6:19WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Gabriel Vilardi · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 15:24DALNils LundkvistAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 1:01DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–1
- P3 1:35DALTyler SeguinAssists: Matt Duchene, Thomas Harley · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–1
- P3 3:23DALWyatt JohnstonGWGAssists: Nils Lundkvist, Thomas Harley · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–1
- P3 9:53WPGMorgan BarronSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG5–2
- P3 11:09WPGKyle ConnorSHAssists: Mark Scheifele, Dylan DeMelo · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–3
- P3 16:57WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Dylan DeMelo · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 12:48DALRoope Hintz: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:46WPGDylan DeMelo: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:01DALIlya Lyubushkin: Holding2 min
- P2 8:23DALJustin Hryckowian: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:54DALMikko Rantanen: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:54WPGNeal Pionk: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:17WPGJonathan Toews: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:56WPGNeal Pionk: Interference2 min
- P2 19:13WPGAlex Iafallo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:47DALJustin Hryckowian: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:47WPGMark Scheifele: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:27WPGJosh Morrissey: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:04DALThomas Harley: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Hintz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRantanen – Hintz – Robertson3:59
xG 0.27–0.05 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Duchene – Seguin – Johnston2:51
xG 0.24–0.02 (91%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Rantanen – Hintz – Steel4:27
xG 0.42–0.31 (58%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Blackwell – Steel – Bourque2:29
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLundkvist – Harley12:40
xG 0.54–0.22 (71%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen11:33
xG 0.51–0.22 (70%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Lyubushkin – Bichsel10:07
xG 0.36–0.38 (49%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Nyquist – Niederreiter – Namestnikov2:08
xG 0.02–0.01 (73%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Pearson – Barron – Koepke4:58
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Niederreiter – Namestnikov – Iafallo4:52
xG 0.05–0.18 (23%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Toews – Nyquist – Chibrikov4:51
xG 0.09–0.30 (23%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey14:39
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Schenn – Stanley5:58
xG 0.01–0.57 (2%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Fleury – Pionk11:30
xG 0.15–0.78 (16%)attempts 11–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).