Sat, Oct 11, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
St. Louis Blues 4, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 04 | 212 | 212 | 428 |
| CGY | 19 | 114 | 06 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:49CGYMatt CoronatoPPAssists: Joel Farabee, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 12:41STLJake NeighboursAssists: Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 14:25STLRobert ThomasPPAssists: Jimmy Snuggerud, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 14:57CGYMatt CoronatoAssists: Kevin Bahl · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 11:07STLJake NeighboursGWGAssists: Colton Parayko, Cam Fowler · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 13:33STLPius SuterAssists: Tyler Tucker, Nathan Walker · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:29STLNick Bjugstad: Holding2 min
- P1 4:54CGYBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:28CGYConnor Zary: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:59STLPhilip Broberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:13STLPavel Buchnevich: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:24STLTyler Tucker: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:24CGYRyan Lomberg: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:50STLRobert Thomas: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:38STLColton Parayko: Holding2 min
- P2 13:34CGYMikael Backlund: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:35STLPius Suter: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:50CGYNazem Kadri: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestWalker – Joseph – Suter2:08
xG 0.56–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway11:30
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours4:48
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 4–6goals 2–0
- Bjugstad – Walker – Joseph3:36
xG 0.08–0.18 (32%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Tucker2:24
xG 0.54–0.00 (99%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Broberg – Mailloux2:44
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Fowler – Parayko13:03
xG 0.25–0.46 (36%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Honzek9:11
xG 0.29–0.16 (64%)attempts 9–5goals 0–2
- Kadri – Coronato – Gridin9:44
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Lomberg – Zary – Klapka4:32
xG 0.11–0.26 (30%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Frost – Farabee – Sharangovich7:52
xG 0.53–0.96 (36%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Hanley12:32
xG 0.94–0.45 (68%)attempts 20–10goals 0–3
- Pachal – Parekh9:40
xG 0.42–0.50 (46%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Andersson – Bahl12:44
xG 0.41–0.70 (37%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).