Sat, Oct 11, 2025·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
New Jersey Devils 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 317 | 07 | 27 | 531 |
| TBL | 02 | 27 | 18 | 317 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:30NJDTimo MeierAssists: Nico Hischier, Dawson Mercer · Poke, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 10:17NJDConnor BrownAssists: Arseny Gritsyuk, Luke Hughes · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 13:48NJDNico HischierAssists: Timo Meier, Luke Hughes · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–0
- P2 7:31TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Brayden Point, Max Crozier · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 17:23TBLRyan McDonaghAssists: Brandon Hagel, Max Crozier · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 4:48NJDJesper BrattSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 6:29NJDConnor BrownAssists: Arseny Gritsyuk, Simon Nemec · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–2
- P3 16:17TBLDarren RaddyshAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Gage Goncalves · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:41TBLJack Finley: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:43TBLMax Crozier: Elbowing2 min
- P1 18:33TBLErik Cernak: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:37NJDLuke Hughes: Delaying game2 min
- P2 14:23TBLBrandon Hagel: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:21NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:11NJDJacob Markstrom: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Bratt – Hughes8:33
xG 0.83–0.18 (83%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Brown – Glass – Gritsyuk6:49
xG 0.45–0.19 (70%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Meier – Hischier – Mercer9:19
xG 0.63–0.50 (55%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Glendening – MacEwen – Cotter6:18
xG 0.06–0.07 (46%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – Hughes12:16
xG 0.94–0.23 (81%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Dillon – Nemec12:02
xG 0.77–0.33 (70%)attempts 18–8goals 2–2
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler13:12
xG 0.34–0.83 (29%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestBjorkstrand – Goncalves – Geekie3:56
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel8:18
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Gourde – Guentzel – Cirelli6:02
xG 0.40–0.52 (43%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Holmberg – Chaffee – Finley5:56
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak8:57
xG 0.69–0.08 (89%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Hedman – Crozier5:31
xG 0.20–0.08 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Raddysh2:22
xG 0.28–0.22 (56%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).